Chart #1: This is the chart on which the entire CO2 driven climate change fraud is based. It is also the chart that will ultimately be used to prove the fraudulent nature of the NASA, NOAA and HadCRU data “adjustments.” CO2’s increase in near-linear and it is this linear trend that will ultimately undermine the CO2 driven climate change fraud. The reason will be explained later in this posting.
Chart #2: This is an 800,000 year ice core record of temperature and CO2. The first thing to note is that climate change is the norm. Never in 800,000 has the climate not been changing. If Al Gore and his policies were somehow able to stop the climate from changing, it would be the first time in 800,000 that that has happened, and extremely unnatural.
The second thing to note is that every previous temperature peak was higher than today’s temperatures and occurred at LOWER CO2 levels. In other words, record high CO2 didn’t result in record high temperatures.
The third thing to note is that there is no linear relationship between CO2 and temperature, and what relationship does exist has temperatures LEADING CO2. There is no defined mechanism by which CO2 would suddenly increase shortly before the ending of an ice age and there is no mechanism by which CO2 would suddenly decrease before the start of an ice age. CO2 can’t explain the most significant points of the glacial intra-glacial cycle. CO2 simply can’t be the Climate Control Knob the alarmists claim it to be.
Chart #3: This is a 600 million year history of atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. The first thing to note is that NEVER in 600 million years has CO2 resulted in catastrophic warming, even when it was as high as 7,000 ppm, or nearly 18x the level that it is today. The second thing to note is that no matter what CO2 is doing, temperatures seem to stay between 12 and 22°C. The last thing to note is that we are in a CO2 drought, and near the lowest levels of the past 600 million years. Plants begin to die when CO2 falls below 180 ppm. As above, there is no linear relationship between CO2 and temperatures.
Chart #4: If something is understood, it can be modeled. Well, the IPCC Climate Models FAIL at a 95% confidence rate, and the rate is INCREASING. A monkey throwing darts at the WSJ would do a better job of modeling the Stock Market than the Climate Models do the climate. The fraud is obvious in that 100% of the Climate Models overestimate the temperature increase. That isn’t evidence of a sound and settled science, but of an systemic bias and failure. The reason I say this is a fraud goes back to Chart #1, the linear rate of increase of CO2.
Additionally, as the models’ failure grew, the IPCC’s confidence in their theory also grew. That is basically the scientific method flipped on its head. No real science behaves that way. Results like the IPCC models would result in any real science looking into causes other than CO2, which their models do a good job ruling out as the cause.
Chart #5: Climate models assume a linear relationship between CO2 and Temperature. The alarmists use the core model of ΔT = f(ΔCO2). It is a direct, linear, and essentially single variable model. That is how they can claim man is responsible for ALL the industrial era warming. CO2 they claim is the only disruption to the climate system that can explain the warming, and that CO2 is 100% attributable to man.
Sounds good, but the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere isn’t what is important, it is the amount of energy that the excess man-made CO2 absorbs/ thermalizes that is important. If you have a 5-gallon bucket with a hole in it, it doesn’t matter how large the bucket is, it won’t hold much water. Well, the absorption of energy by CO2 shows a logarithmic DECAY with an increase in concentration.
Mother Nature isn’t stupid, she designed CO2 with a natural off switch. A certain level of warmth is needed for life to survive, so the first 280 ppm (Pre-Industrial) of CO2 trap 258 W/M^2 of outgoing LWIR. The additional CO2 attributed by man, the additional 130 ppm up to the current 410 ppm, traps only an additional 2 W/M^2, and that is rounded up. Anyone seeking the truth can experiment with various CO2 scenarios using the program MODTRAN (Click Here)
Because the marginal absorption of energy by CO2 isn’t linear, I can say with 100% complete certainty that the IPCC Models will NEVER in all CAPs be even close to being correct. Never, and I can make that bold of a statement without having a Ph.D. in climate “science.” Anyone that takes 2 seconds to understand the basics of the CO2 molecule would reach that exact same conclusion. (Source) (More Info)
Chart #6: Highlights how ground measurement data from NASA has been “adjusted” over time. Why I say the “adjustments” aren’t done in good faith is because of the way they are adjusted. The adjustments are systematically applied to result in a more linear and steeper incline of ground temperatures. Why I say the “adjustments” are fraudulent is because that isn’t what you would expect if CO2 was the cause of the warming. As Chart #5 demonstrates, CO2’s relationship with temperatures isn’t linear. A linear increase in temperatures disproves CO2 as the cause and proves there must be some other factor. The climate alarmist then manufacture untestable and unexplainable “feedbacks” to justify the linearity. As we will see, those feedback claims crumble under scrutiny as well. (More Info)
Chart #7: In Climate Science there are 3 main data sets. Satellite (UAH), Balloons (RSS) and Ground Measurements (NASA GISS). Two of the data sets confirm each other, and one is an outlier. The Climate Alarmists, of course, choose the highly “adjusted” NASA GISS ground measurements over the highly more accurate balloon and satellite measurements.
By far the most accurate temperature data we have are from satellite and balloon measurements. In the above graphic, you can see that actual atmospheric temperatures are in no way linear and in no way tied related to CO2. That data clearly shows temperatures are extremely correlated with water vapor and ocean cycles, which are in turn related to the sun and the amount of radiation reaching the earth’s surface. CO2 is transparent to incoming warming visible radiation.
The Red RSS V7 TCWV line is atmospheric water vapor and the other lines are atmospheric temperature. Water vapor and atmospheric temperatures are almost indistinguishable. The reason you most likely have never seen this before is because we don’t debate this issue in public, and charts like this totally destroy the CO2 drives temperature myth.
Chart #8: Ground measurements have known corrupting forces, largely water vapor, and the Urban Heat Island Effect. The above graphic highlight the best example I’ve found to demonstrate the Urban Heat Island Effect. It highlights two different weather stations separated by only a small lake. On one side is a great deal of urban development, on the other side no development at all to speak of. It is the perfect location to isolate the impact of the Urban Heat Island Effect. What we find is that the one side of the lake, undisturbed by urban development, shows actual COOLING over the past 80 years, or at least between 1930 through 1995. (A period including Al Gore’s hottest 10 years in history) The other side impacted by the Urban Heat Island Effect shows distinct warming. Climate Alarmists use this obviously corrupted data to implicate CO2, when in fact, it is really measuring the Urban Heat Island Effect and has nothing to do with CO2. (More)
Chart #9 and 10: The other problem with ground measurements is that water vapor saturates the Greenhouse Gas Effect of the lower atmosphere. The CO2 “signature” isn’t even measurable until you are at an altitude of 3.5km or above. 100% of all ground measurements are taken in the layer of the atmosphere where CO2 has absolutely zero impact. By relying on the “adjusted” ground measurements, Climate Alarmists are allowed to claim warming, and attribute it to CO2. In reality, the only warming in the lower atmosphere is due to greater sunlight reaching the earth’s surface and oceans, water vapor, the Urban Heat Island Effect and intentionally biased data “adjustments”, not CO2.
Chart #11 and 12: The regrettably small graphics above are MODTRAN results of the lower atmosphere under conditions of 400 ppm and 800 ppm. The graphics record the outgoing LWIR of 417.306 W/M^2 for both levels of CO2. (Click Here) What that means is that the ground measurements are taken at the level where it is impossible to measure the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperature because it is dominated by water vapor. CO2 is irrelevant to the lower atmosphere, so once again, the linear adjustments NASA applies make even less sense. The reason you haven’t heard of MODTRAN is because the more people that know how to use it, the less credibility the Climate Alarmists have. It is hard to win a public debate when your position is that the calculator is wrong.
Chart #12 and 13: The impact of CO2 on temperatures is also absent from the ice core records of the Holocene. Temperatures didn’t increase with CO2 over the Holocene, THEY FELL. Temperatures have been falling for the past 3,500 years, during a time when CO2 was increasing, and in fact is now at a record level for the Holocene.
The other oddity about Climate “Science” is that it doesn’t rely on the Scientific Method, Experimentation and Reproducibility, the hallmarks of any real science. If it did, this debate would have been over a very long time ago. If one tests the hypothesis “Man if not causing climate change” using ice core data, that hypothesis isn’t rejected, not even close. Simply calculate the mean and standard deviation of the temperature of the Holocene before the industrial age, then calculate the mean temperature of the Industrial Age. You will find that there is absolutely nothing unusual about the past 150 years of temperature variation. Simply eyeballing the above chart will tell you that, no need for a calculator.
Chart #14: The other major problem with ground measurements is that it is an apples and oranges dataset, combining different regions over different time periods, using different instrumentation. To control for the ground measurement location and instrumentation issues, we select the longest single continuous record of instrumental temperatures, Central England. If you control for measuring instrumentation and location, what you find is that temperatures are volatile, but by no means showing an uptrend or relationship to CO2. The Central England record goes back to 1650, and temperatures were below that level as recently as 2010. There are also other long-term data sets that show no warming as well. (Click Here)
Chart #15: It is easy for Climate Alarmists to cherry pick data sets to make an alarmist’s claim. (Source) This is especially true regarding the “adjusted” data over the past 30 years. The problem is, there is a major reason the earth would have a “fever” over the past 30 years, and it has nothing to do with CO2 and everything to do with clean air. As the air has been cleaned of its volcanic and other particulate matter, more sunlight has been reaching the earth’s surface. CO2 has nothing to do with the recent warming.
Chart #16: The reason I can say the recent warming is due to the sun and not CO2 is because the oceans are warming. It takes vast amounts of incoming warming VISIBLE radiation to warm the oceans, especially from the blue end of the spectrum. The physics of the CO2 molecule are related to a narrow band of the IR spectrum between 13 and 18µ. Those wavelengths simply don’t penetrate or warm water and don’t carry much energy anyways. The black body temperature of thermalizing those wavelengths in a bone-chilling -50 to -110°C.
Chart #17: Those wavelengths won’t even melt ice, let alone warm water. Ironically, the climate alarmists use the warming oceans as their best evidence that CO2 is the cause of the warming. (Click Here)
Chart #18: If you line up the Sun’s radiation, CO2 and Temperatures, it becomes apparent that something other than CO2 is driving atmospheric temperatures, namely the sun and related ocean cycles.
Chart #19: Another piece of evidence working against the climate alarmists are the sea level measurements. Recently the sea level data is getting the “adjustment” treatment similar to the temperature data. (Source) By using the same approach we used with the Central England Temperature dataset, we can use with sea levels as well. Recently newspapers were littered with alarmist headlines about 3 Trillion Tons of Ice from Antarctica Vanishing since 1992. (Source) The impact of the rate of change of New York City sea level was immeasurable, in fact, it looks like the current level was recently below that of 1992. Facts are if temperatures were, in fact, increasing at an increasing rate, glaciers would be melting at an increasing rate, and sea level would, in turn, be increasing at an increasing rate. It is a second derivative problem across the board. The problem for the climate alarmists is that sea levels aren’t increasing at an increasing rate. Battery Park, at the South end of Manhatten, shows the same rate of change/slope since 1850.
Chart #19: Believe it or not, record high daytime temperatures is not a sign of CO2 global warming. The Greenhouse Gas Effect thermalizes OUTGOING longwave IR radiation. Record temperatures require new energy being added to the system, and that comes from the Sun. If you are setting record high temperatures the most likely causes are clear skies and a hot sun. Recently the jet stream has been slightly altered, as has the Hadley Cell, which has allowed more sunlight to reach both the surface of the earth and the oceans. More sunlight reaching the oceans and surface can explain record high daytime temperatures and the warming oceans, neither of which CO2 can explain. (Read More)(And More) (And More)
Chart #20: Believe it or not, the real impact CO2 has on the atmosphere is to COOL it. That isn’t a TYPO, CO2 actually has worked to COOL the atmosphere, and the above graphic proves it. The Greenhouse Gas Effect is measured by the amount of outgoing Long Wave IR measured in W/M^2. The Blue in the above graphic represents more energy leaving the atmosphere or a greater outgoing flux. The amount of Blue exceeds the amount of Red, so CO2 has actually worked to COOL the layer of the atmosphere where we can isolate the impact of CO2 on the atmosphere, the water vapor free Stratosphere. Even if the Stratosphere did warm over that period, there certainly is not a linear trend to the stratosphere, either warming or cooling. (Read more)
Chart #21 and 22: CO2 is a constant 400 ppm all the way up to 80 km, Water Vapor is basically out of the atmosphere by 10 km. Over that distance, temperatures fall with altitude in the Troposphere as Water Vapor decreases and CO2 remains constant, temperatures then “pause” in the tropopause close to the temperature that CO2 thermalizes LWIR between 13 and 18µ of -50 to -110°C. That is the best signature you can find for CO2, and it is to prevent temperatures from falling below a certain temperature, not to warm it. Temperatures then warm with altitude in the stratosphere largely due to the creation of Ozone, CO2 remains constant. Temperatures then fall again in the Mesosphere, and temperatures don’t fall below the magic -50 to -110°C until you are above 80km where CO2 starts to decline below 400 ppm. Temperatures then “pause” again, before warming again in the Thermosphere WHERE CO2 is decreasing.
Clearly, from the physics of the CO2 molecule (thermalizing LWIR between 13 and 18µ generating energy consistent with -50 to -110°C) and knowledge of the temperature profile of the atmosphere, CO2’s main role in the atmosphere isn’t to “warm” but to put in a temperature “floor” between -50 to -110°C. CO2 is present in all layers of the atmosphere, largely at a constant concentration of around 400 ppm, yet temperatures increase AND fall as if CO2 has no impact at all. The best CO2 signature one can find in the atmosphere is the Tropopause, where CO2 prevents temperatures from falling below -50 to -110°C. CO2 is the only major Greenhouse gas present, so the Troposphere is a natural “control” for CO2.
Chart #23: Climate data is constantly being “adjusted,” so it is difficult to put any credibility in it, especially the ground measurements. Climate scientists will have a “consensus” during one period, and then “adjust” the data to get different results, and the “consensus” remains. Oddly, it doesn’t shake the confidence of the researchers in their ability to measure global temperatures, their confidence actually grows.
The problem is, those “experts” have one of the worst records of predictions in scientific history. Even after “adjusting” the data to improve the results of their models, they still fail. One of the favorite targets of the experts is the polar ice cap. They are constantly making dire predictions of melting ice caps, ice-free Arctic, rising sea levels, etc etc. When all we have to rely on is data, it is hard to know who is telling the truth. Fortunately, we no longer have to rely on the experts, we now have photo documentation. (Source)
Al Gore and Jim Hansen can make claims that we will have an “ice-free Arctic” by the end of 2018 all they want, and we can easily test their accuracy by simply looking at the “near-real-time” computer graphic or photo. Now people have the ability to answer the question, “do I believe the Experts of my lying eyes?” My bet is that most people will trust their eyes over the experts, especially after doing it for a while. I’ve done so and rarely have I found the experts to be even in the ballpark, let alone correct. Climate Science’s obsession with CO2 guarantees their predictions will always be inaccurate. They are like the auto mechanic that keeps replacing the oil filter when your car needs new spark plugs. They simply don’t understand the problem, so they will never be able to fix it. That is the unfortunate reality of the situation. (Source)
Old Photos and Newspapers exist as well:
h/t Real Science
Chart #24: This is the infamous “Hockeystick” chart. While consistent thermometer data exists from the mid-1600s, Michael Mann inexplicably chose not to include instrumental data until 1902. The chart abruptly does a “dog-leg” precisely at 1902. Proxy data is mixed with the instrumental data until 1980. Once the proxy data is dropped, the chart does yet another “dog-leg.”(Source) There is nothing regarding the physics of the CO2 molecule or its rate of change in atmospheric concentration that would explain an abrupt change in trend by temperatures. Longterm instrumental records like Central England do not show any abrupt “dog-legs.” (Source) Michael Mann also conveniently chose the peak of the Medieval Warming Period to start his graphic, and for some reason erased the Little-Ice Age. The fact that this graphic passed “Peer Review” and was accepted by the IPCC and “Consensus” should give any fair-minded individual pause in trusting these organizations and groups.
Chart #25: This is a chart of the temperature reading from the stations closest to Glacier National Park. The glaciers in the part are in fact disappearing, but the majority of the disappearance occurred before the mid-1940s, before the surge in CO2. Most importantly, there is no warming trend in Glacier National Park to implicate CO2. The Kilimanjaro Glacier is at 19,340 feet, thousands of feet above the freeze line. The Kilimanjaro Glacier never experiences temperatures above freezing, and yet its glacier is disappearing. The Kilimanjaro Glacier and many like it are disappearing not due to warming, but to changing humidity in the air. Dryer air can cause “sublimation” which is the process that makes ice cubes disappear if left in the freezer too long. Climate Alarmists routinely identify natural phenomenon and falsely attribute them to man-made CO2. I personally would like to hear Google’s explanation as to how ice “melts” in sub-zero temperatures.(Source)
Chart #26: Believe it or not, CO2 is a weak, a very weak Greenhouse Gas. (Source) The potency of a Greenhouse Gas is determined by its molecular structure. Molecules like H2O have a permanent “dipole” or bend to their structure. The bend allows the molecule to have many vibrational states, which correspond to various wavelengths in the LWIR spectrum. From the above graphic of absorptivity of various Greenhouse Gasses, Water Vapor is almost indistinguishable from the total atmospheric absorption. That is why people that know what they are talking about always say Water Vapor is by far the most potent Greenhouse Gas.
CO2, on the other hand, has no permanent “dipole” and is only affected by 3 very narrow bands of LWIR, 2.7, 4.3, and 15µ, with peek 15µ (13µ to 18µ band) being the only band of importance regarding the earth’s Greenhouse Gas Effect. The problem is, water vapor also absorbs 15µ, and it has a much much much higher atmospheric concentration. Water vapor can be as high as 4 parts per hundred, CO2 is measured in parts per 10,000. CO2 is commonly reported at 400 parts per million. Water vapor simply saturates the Greenhouse Gas Effect of the Troposphere, making CO2 simply insignificant. The first the CO2 signature is measurable is up over 3.5 km when water vapor starts to precipitate out of the atmosphere.
The other important point is that the earth emits LWIR with a peak of 10µ, and CO2’s effect starts out near 15µ, the “cool” very low energy end of the IR spectrum. What CO2 does is provide a temperature floor, preventing temperatures from falling below -50 to -110°C, it really doesn’t warm the atmosphere at all, temperatures just stop falling once you reach the Tropopause and CO2’s main effect is expressed.
Chart #27: OK, we’ve saved the best for last. The whole approach to Climate Science regarding CO2’s impact on the climate should be focused on controlling for the factors of water vapor, the Urban Heat Island Effect, the Sun and other factors other than CO2 that may impact temperatures. Only when you isolate the impact of CO2 on temperatures can you honestly begin to understand its role in changing the climate. To do that we scoured the data sets looking for a way to isolate the impact of CO2 on temperatures.
That data set is the Tropopause Layer above the extreme South Pole. There is no water vapor in that layer, the sun’s role is reduced, and there is absolutely no Urban Heat Island Effect. The extreme South Pole Tropopause DataSet is the ideal control for isolating the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperatures. If CO2 was going to warm any layer of the atmosphere, its fingerprint would be found there. (Source)
What does one find when they study the ideal dataset controlled for all factors other than CO2? What does one find when they finally can isolate and identify the impact CO2 has on atmospheric temperatures? One finds that CO2 has absolutely no warming impact what so ever on atmospheric temperatures. None, nada, zip. You are more likely to find a little green elf riding a rainbow-colored unicorn than to find warming in that dataset. CO2 simply doesn’t warm the atmosphere like the alarmists claim, and that data proves it.
The above charts and analysis detail why Climate Alarmists won’t debate this topic in public, and why the social media attempting to be the arbiters of the truth is so dangerous. They have bought into the Big Lie manufactured by the Progressive Left. The Social Media outlets should be forums for discussion so we can better understand the world in which we live, not a place for one side to force their opinions on the other. Instead of censoring, shunning, attacking, slandering and labeling people that disagree with “consensus,” the Social Media Firms should be facilitating public dialog and debates. The very fact that most Americans have never seen a debate regarding climate change should be concerning for everyone give the extreme costs of the proposed publicly funded policies.
If YouTube, Facebook, and other Social Media truly want to be a force for good and really want to get to the truth, this was written to be the basis for a public debate. I welcome the Climate Alarmists trying to refute the claims we’ve made, all of which are exquisitely sourced and supported by hard facts and data. If the Climate Alarmists want to explain why MODTRAN and NASA Satelite Data is wrong, I welcome their explanation.
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