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Congress Needs to Investigate the RSS Data “Adjustments”

h/t Tony Heller of Real Science (Link)

The introductory graphic is of the RSS Data prior to the “adjustments” (Source). It is clear that the observed data is falling outside the IPCC forecasts at the 95% confidence level. In any real science, that would be game over for the CO2 drives temperatures theory, and the real scientist would then go on to find other possible causes. Unfortunately, that isn’t how climate “science” works. In the field of climate “science,” when the models start to fail, you simply “adjust” the data.

Fig. 1. Global (70S to 80N) Mean TLT Anomaly plotted as a function of time. The black line is the time series for the RSS V4.0 MSU/AMSU atmosperhic temperature dataset. The yellow band is the 5% to 95% range of output from CMIP-5 climate simulations. The mean value of each time series average from 1979-1984 is set to zero so the changes over time can be more easily seen. Note that after 1998, the observations are likely to be in the lower part of the model distribution, indicating that there is a small discrepancy between the model predictions and the satelllite observations.(All time series have been smoothed to remove variabilty on time scales shorter than 6 months.)

Magically, after “adjusting” the data, Temperatures barely fall back into the possible at a 95% confidence level band…but that won’t last long. In fact, tropical temperatures, the ones least impacted by the Urban Heat Island Effect are already outside the 95% band.

Fig. 2. Tropical (30S to 30N) Mean TLT Anomaly plotted as a function of time. The black line is the time series for the RSS V4.0 MSU/AMSU atmospheric temperature dataset. The yellow band is the 5% to 95% range of output from CMIP-5 climate simulations. The mean value of each time series average from 1979-1984 is set to zero so the changes over time can be more easily seen. Again, after 1998, the observations are likely to be on the low side of the simulated values, indicating that the simulations as a whole are predicting more warming than has been observed by the satellites.

When you overlap the before and after charts, you can see the impact on the chart. The chart suddenly becomes more linear and shows more warming. More importantly, the new data falls inside the previous 95% confidence band.

Prior to the “Adjustments” RSS and Satellite data were basically indistinguishable.

Now, after the “adjustments,” there is a distinct gap, with RSS showing more warming.

The reason for the one-sided “adjustments” should be obvious. The RSS supported the Satellite Data, not the highly adjusted ground measurement data from GISS favored by the Climate Alarmists.

It is very strange for a group of Scientists to have 3 data sources, 2 that confirm each other, and one that is an outlier, to have one of the confirmed data sets to be “adjusted” to fall more in line with the outlier. That just simply isn’t something that happens in real science.

Most unfortunate, however, is that honest people from the inside predicted that RSS would “adjust” their data to fall more in line with GISS.

“I expect there will soon be a revised TLT product from RSS which shows enhanced warming, too.

Here’s what I’m predicting:

1) neither John Christy nor I will be asked to review the paper

2) it will quickly sail through peer review (our UAH V6 paper is still not in print nearly 1 year after submission)

3) it will have many authors, including climate model people and the usual model pundits (e.g. Santer), which will supposedly lend legitimacy to the new data adjustments.

Let’s see how many of my 3 predictions come true.

-Roy”

Source

The problem both the RSS and GISS data adjustments has is that the adjustments aren’t consistent with the underlying physics of the CO2 molecule and the Greenhouse Gas Effect. CO2’s absorption of energy isn’t linearly related to concentration, it shows a logarithmic decay. CO2 increases at a nearly linear rate, but its absorption of energy decays with each additional molecule.

The other problem is that the GISS ground measurements are measuring the layer of the atmosphere where CO2 has zero impact. CO2 doesn’t impact the lower troposphere. There is no reason the RSS should be consistent with the GISS Ground measurements because there is no Urban Heat Island effect at the upper Troposphere lower stratosphere.

The above chart is measuring the Ground Level Upward IR Heat Flux for 400 ppm CO2. It measures 417.306 W/m^2

Doubling the CO2 to 800 ppm does absolutely nothing to the 417.306 W/m^2 Ground Level Upward IR Heat Flux. Simply put, if H2O is present in the atmosphere, CO2 is completely irrelevant. Ground measurements measure the impact of H2O on the climate, Balloons and Satellites measure the impact of CO2 because they are measuring the layer of the atmosphere where there is no H2O and CO2 is the dominant GHG. There is no logical explanation why the RSS should be more aligned with the GISS Ground Measurements than the UAH Satellite Data. One is measuring apples and the other oranges. Matching RSS to GISS is like making fruit salad.

Balloons measure way above the ground measurement stations.

Art Imitating Reality:

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IPCC Models Sloppy And Lopsided, Major Factors “Not Adequately Represented”

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Banning CFCs Caused Global Warming and the Ozone hole to GROW

There appears to be as much “science” behind the CFC caused Ozone Hole as there is behind AGW. Progressives tout the Montreal Protocol signed 30 years as the way to save the Earth and heal the Ozone hole. First, the earth didn’t need to be saved from the naturally occurring Ozone Hole, something that data barely exists to analyze, and second, banning CFCs didn’t stop the Ozone Hole from growing.

According to the above graphics, the Ozone hole reached a MINIMUM in 2002 and a MAXIMUM in 2017. Additionally, the CFC concentration in the atmosphere has gradually decreased over that time. Note, those concentrations are parts per TRILLION. The variability of the Ozone Hole simply doesn’t correlate with the smooth concentrations of CFCs. Ironically, SF6 is a replacement for the CFC’s, and it is a potent GHG. Source

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From the data above it is obvious that trusting the understanding of Science and development of effective solutions to a progressive can be very very dangerous. Their knee-jerk reactions, always blaming a human cause for a natural phenomenon, can lead to monumental misallocation of resources or even worse.

Banning CFCs has done nothing to alter the variability of the Ozone Hole. Watch the NASA “Scientist” explain how falling CFC has proven the Montreal Protocol a success and that the Ozone Hole is shrinking. This NASA “Scientist” doesn’t seem to be able to read the charts and data tracking the Ozone Hole. Thank God she didn’t work on the Apollo Mission.

BTW, Chlorine is a natural element and has many natural sources.

As concern grew over depletion of ozone in the stratosphere scientists examined the role of volcanoes…Hydrogen chloride released by volcanoes can cause drastic reductions in ozone if concentrations reach high levels (about 15-20 ppb by volume)(Prather and others, 1984). As the El Chichon eruption cloud was spreading, the amount of HCl in the cloud increased by 40% (Mankin and Coffey, 1984). This increase represents about 10% of the global inventory of HCl in the stratosphere. Other large eruptions (Tambora, Krakatau, and Agung) may have released almost ten-times more HCl into the stratosphere than the amount of chlorine commonly present in the stratosphere (Pinto and others, 1989)…Study of ozone amounts before and after the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo show that there were significant decreases in lower stratospheric ozone (Grant and others, 1994). The amount of ozone in the 16-28 km region was some reduced by 33% compared to pre-eruption amounts. A similar reduced amount of ozone was measured in the summer of 1992.

Source

I find it interesting how the source of the above quote consistently tries to downplay the role of volcanoes as a major source of Stratospheric Chlorine and seems to imply man-made ground-level CFCs have a greater probability of reaching the stratosphere than Chlorine released from a volcano. Mother Nature has had billions of years to adapt to a changing Ozone Hole, and banning CFCs won’t change that fact, or save the earth. Mother Nature doesn’t need some hysterical knee-jerk progressive to tell her how to run her planet.

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RSS: H2O, NOT CO2, is Highly Correlated with Temperatures

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In the deep tropics, changes in water vapor are very strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric temperatures. Figure 7 shows time series of water vapor and temperature anomalies from the different satellite temperature datasets. The data have been averaged over the oceans in the latitude band from 20S to 20N.

CO2 is never mentioned on the referenced RSS website. BTW, imagine the model and output you could create using H2O as the independent variable instead of CO2. The results of the CO2 driven model is discussed below. The fact that climate alarmists ignore such overwhelming evidence presented by H20, and cling to failed models as discussed below simply demonstrates that they aren’t looking for the right answers. Stevie Wonder could see the relationship between H20 and temperature.

Source

RSS Tropical Temperatures are outside of the 95% Confidence Band. That means that the “Science” that has 95% of “Scientists” or a “Consensus” agreeing with 95% Confidence that CO2 is the cause of warming, has been rejected at the 95% Confidence level. BTW, RSS temperatures are back to the level they were in 1988. In other words, 20 years of absolutely no warming.

Can You Spot the Similarity?

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Temperatures and Water Vapor flat between 1988 and 1997, Temperatures flat between 1988 and 1997. Water vapor spikes in 1998, Temperatures spike in 1998. Water Vapor flat between 1999 and 2009, Temperatures are flat between 1999 and 2009. Water Vapor spikes in 2010, Temperatures spike in 2010. Move along, move along, nothing to see here. CO2 is the cause, move along.

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Finally – Proof That Global Warming Is Man Made

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Settled Sciences Require Accurate Models; Climate Science Has None

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Humiliation of the alarmists

Al Gore’s hysterical projections of ice-free Arctic late summers are exposed as an absolute sham. 2018 uses a conservative projected value.

Today the doomsday scenarios and projections made 10 years ago have yet to show any signs of materializing. Late summer Arctic sea ice has been surprisingly stable over the past decade. Gore and alarmists fell into the trap of applying an idiotic polynomial curve extrapolation into the future.

In fact there are indications that Arctic sea ice may be starting an upward trend as oceanic and solar cycles enter their cooler phases.

Source

More on this Topic: A Model that is Actually Accurate that is Ignored by the IPCC

Speak of the Devil; Nature Confirms the Arctic Sea Ice Atmospheric Circulation Theory

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Climate “Science” on Trial; If Something is Understood, it can be Modeled

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IPCC’s Kangaroo Science…To Ignore Over 600 Papers Confirming Major Solar Impact On Climate

The upcoming 6th IPCC Sixth Assessment Report will be a “comprehensive assessment of the science” related to climate change and published in 2022. However, don’t expect it to be “comprehensive” at all as hundreds of scientific publications showing profound impacts by sun and oceans will go ignored.

Climate science has turned into a religion that centers on a single act of faith. Human CO2 is changing our climate.

In the past it was always understood that climate was impacted by a vast array of factors, such oceanic cycles, solar cycles, aerosols, cloud cover, etc. to name a few.

Continue Reading

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Global Temperature Rise Some 75% Lower Than Models Projected!

No matter how hard climate-catastrophe obsessed alarmists attempt to beat out a little doom from the data, their results still fall far way short of their projections. Moreover, the modest warming the planet has seen over the recent decades is tied more to natural cycles.

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Clueless Beyond Belief

The economic policies of the 1920s were called the “Roaring 20s.” Obama created ISIS. Obama gave us the worst post-war recovery in history. Progressives elected him twice.

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Something Simply Isn’t Passing the Stink Test

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Anyone that has ever dabbled in politics knows that the Democrats and Communists are very closely related, and often coordinate efforts. Unions, Environmental Groups, Human Rights Campaigns are often partially funded by Communist Front Groups. Go into a Ghetto and attend a “grassroots” rally. All the participants will be holding manufactured signs, many of them stamped with “Paid For By The World’s Worker Party,” or some other communist affiliation.

As the introductory graphic demonstrates, Congress is aware of the close ties between the Watermelon (Green on the outside Red on the Inside) Environmental Groups. These relationships are well known to just about anyone in politics, and certainly well known to Democrats that benefit from the efforts. When I attended Tea Party events busses would show up right before the media cameras, and the rent a mob would rush to get in front of the Tea Party and grab the media attention. Once the cameras stop filming, the mob would get back on the bus and follow the cameras to the next event. The same person could be seen at multiple events holding the same sign. I was told stories about some people make being a member of a “rent a mob” a career, and coming all the way from California.

With that understanding from my actual experiences, I can’t figure out for the life of me how the FBI is discovering a communist agent in the NRA and not an environmental group. I’ve never seen a Conservative Group hand out stuff paid for by the communists. The NRA doesn’t promote an agenda that would help destroy America. Russians are unarmed for a reason. The fact that the FBI finds a spy in the NRA and not the Sierra Club pretty much proves they are looking in all the wrong places. For every 1 Spy they can find in the NRA, they could find 1,000 in left-wing groups. Once again, Conservatives aren’t the ones embracing socialism, and the Russians aren’t supporting armings their citizens.

The only reason the Russians would have to infiltrate the NRA would be to destroy it, not strengthen it like they do with left-wing groups. Communists can’t take over America as long as there is the 2nd Amendment, so the Russians have no reason to support the NRA. Supporting the NRA simply doesn’t forward their cause. Destroying the US Oil Industry and promoting the AGW myth does.

Accused Russian agent Mariia Butina tried to trade sex for influence, say prosecutors
Previously, the FBI had said Butina was trying to establish relationships with a “gun rights organization,” which NBC News has reported is the NRA. (Source)

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The Price of a Failed Education; “Unemployment is Low Because People are Working 2 Jobs”

The economic ignorance of Progressives simply can’t be overstated.

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Welcome to 1984 in America

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The 1st and 2nd Amendments mean nothing to a Progressive. BTW, this is how things are truly run in Russia. Congress needs to act sooner rather than later. Facebook and Google are doing far more election tampering than Russia. Russia buys $500,000 in ads, Google and Facebook violate the Rights of 50% of America. Which do you think has a bigger impact on the election?

Source

This is how you tamper with elections. You prevent the other side from expressing their views.

Following this article’s publication, Rivitz confirmed that he founded Sleeping Giants.

The group’s original stated goal was to cripple Breitbart, the pro-Trump website whose former chairman, Steve Bannon, worked in the White House as President Donald Trump’s chief strategist.

To accomplish that goal, Sleeping Giants has waged an intense campaign to pressure Breitbart’s advertisers into pulling their ads from the website. It’s worked pretty much as designed.

Breitbart lost 90 percent of its advertisers over the span of two months in 2017. Sleeping Giants has both maintained its pressure on Breitbart’s remaining advertisers and expanded its focus.

Source

Some loser with a computer can rob millions of people of their voice. Truly pathetic. America embraces these Progressives at their own peril.

Nick Loeb’s anti-abortion film blocked from filming at iconic NYC spots

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