Exhibit N: The relationship between CO2 and Temperature simply isn’t linear
One of the most damning smoking guns is that the entire field of climate “science” appears to believe that there is a linear relationship between CO2 and Temperature. The IPCC models focus exclusively on CO2, and the relationship they model is a simple linear regression. If you try to model a logarithmic relationship as linear you can be 100% certain that the predicted value will overestimate the actual observation and that the error will grow over time. That is exactly what has happened with 100% of the IPCC Models, 100%.
- The vast majority of the heat-trapping capability of CO2 occurred as it increased from 0 ppm to the pre-industrial level of 280 pp. The Downward Forcing changed from 321.536 to 292.051 W/M^2, an increase of 29.5 W/M^2.
- Increasing CO2 from 280 to 400 ppm increased the Downward Forcing from 292.051 to 290.387 W/M^2, an increase of 1.6 W/M^2.
- Doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm would increase the downward forcing from 290.387 to 287.122 W/M^2, an increase of 3.3 W/M^2.
- That additional energy is dispersed/diluted throughout the entire 70 km of the atmosphere, and CO2’s impact is demonstrated at higher levers after H2O has precipitated out of the air.
- Doubling CO2 has no measurable impact on the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere.
- A simple addition of H2O or a cloud layer dwarfs the impact of the additional CO2.
- CO2 only impacts the energy balance in the upper atmosphere once H2O has precipitated out.
- The fact that the “adjustments” to the historical temperature records makes temperatures more linear and more correlated with the increase in CO2 makes the “adjustments” very suspect, and inconsistent with the real physics behind atmospheric CO2.
- The climate models are simply designed to “prove” CO2 is the cause of the warming, not to accurately model the real climate. The bottom line is that the climate is impacted my an infinite number of variable, not just CO2.
- The best analogy to explain this concept is painting a window. The first coat of paint blocks out a lot of light, but each additional coat blocks less and less light. In economics, it is called “the law of diminishing returns” and the example is always a thirsty party goer that really enjoys his first beer, but by his 20th beer the enjoyment per beer has been greatly reduced.
- Heat in the atmosphere is largely contained in the areas where H2O and O3 reside, not CO2.
- The relationship between CO2 and climate is not one-to-one