Climate “Science” on Trial; The Forensic Files: Exhibit O

Exhibit O: Climate “Science” Temperature Reconstructions are not reproducible outside the “Peer Review” community

mwp-hockey-warming_graph

One of the most Orwellian and suspect foundations of the AGW Theory is the temperature reconstruction on which it depends. The original IPCC Report in 1990 used the bottom chart as its temperature reconstruction. The chart accurately identified the well documented Medieval Warming period and Little Ice Age. The problem is, the original chart used by the IPCC did not support the narrative that CO2 was causing global warming. A campaign was then started to rewrite history to make a more convincing argument to convict CO2 and eliminate the inconvenient Medieval Warming period. The IPCC ultimately replaced the problematic chart with the problem-ridden and sharply criticized and widely debunked “Hockey Stick” Chart.

 Talking Points:

  1. The “Hockey Stick” is not reproducible due to its reliance upon unconventional researcher independent/manufactured statistical techniques such as “Mike’s Nature Trick…to Hide the Decline.” (Must Watch Video Clip)hide_the_decline
  2. The Hockey Stick and other following temperature reconstructions include proxies with extremely large errors such at tree rings, coral and even ice cores. Note the large error bars during the pre-1902 proxy period, and the extreme precision during the instrumental period post 1980. The proxy and instrumental data simply behave completely different, and demonstrate a statistical problem called hetroskedasticity making the data set suspect and problematic.   hockeystick1
  3. Even though thermometer data was available, and in fact used by NASA and NOAA in their global temperature reconstructions, Michael Mann did not include instrumental data until 1902. Its addition dramatically altered the trend of the chart. Proxy data was included until 1980, and once discontinued the trend of the chart was dramatically altered again. The fact that the data set’s “behavior” dramatically changes coincident with the changing of its construction makes this data set extremely suspect.
  4. The Hockey Stick shows a full 1.1 degree Celsius increase between 1900 and its publication in 1999. NASA’s global temperature chart shows an increase of about one half that value at 0.6 degree Celsius.global-surface-temperatures-relative-to-1951-1980
  5. The longest continual thermometer record spanning over 350 years shows no warming until a suspicious rapid increase starting in 1980. Nearly 100% of the warming in the 350 year record has occurred since 1980, which is completely inconsistent with the AGW Theory and all other temperature reconstructions. Note how the warming during the 18th century changed temperatures by a full 3.5 degrees Celsius over 50 years, and then collapsed 4 degrees Celsius over a period of less than a decade. In other words, climate change is nothing new, and far more extreme weather/climate events have occurred without the aid of man made CO2.central-england
  6. The “Hockey Stick” passed “peer review,” and helped solidify the “consensus.” If this kind of nonsense can pass “peer review,” the “consensus” isn’t worth a cup of hot air.
  7. The Medievel Warming period has been widely demonstrated to be a global phenemenonmwp-global-studies-map-i-ppt
  8. There are serious problems with the ground measurements used to in the temperature reconstructions.Urbana_WWTP_Detail_South_View.jpg
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