Climate “Science” on Trial; Temperature Records Don’t Support NASA GISS

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One of the oddest aspects of climate “science” is that NASA, the organization that put a man on the moon, ignores its state of the art Satellite and balloon data, and instead relies upon archaic terrestrial ground measurements. Part of the NASA climate “science” community actually ignore the infinitely more accurate data from their satellites. The reason for this bizarre irony is obvious, the satellite data shows no non-El Nino warming since its inception in 1979. The 13 mo moving average in 2012 was the same as in 1980, and below the level reached in 1987. Last month’s level was about the same as the peak level reached in 1983. Temperatures were essentially flat between 1980 and 1998, interrupted by a very strong El Nino, and then flat again from late 1998 and 2016, and then interrupted by another very strong El Nino. Temperatures on the satellite data are highly volatile ranging from a low of -0.5 to a high of 0.85, or a full 1.35 Degree C range. Right now the deviation is near an extreme, having bottomed in 1985 at -0.5, and just recently peaking at 0.85. The Above NASA GISS ground measurement chart shows a smooth increase from a low of -0.25 Degree C in 1979 to peak of 1.25 Degree in 2017, a range of a full 1.50 Degree C. Unlike the satellite data which shows El Nino/Nina peaks and troughs, and no real trend, the ground measurements show a clear and constant positive slope to the smoothed temperatures. UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2017_v6

That, however, isn’t the problem NASA GISS faces, the problem the NASA GISS faces is that their chart is completely inconsistent with the long-term thermometer data sets. The ground measurements are subject to all sorts of errors, a major one being that they get moved around a lot, stations get added and subtracted, and the “Urban Heat Island Effect.”. In 1990 many of the colder stations in Russia dropped out, and since 1940, the stations have been gradually moving towards the very warm equator. For reference, 52 N is Amsterdam, 32 N is Tucson.Screen-Shot-2017-03-05-at-4.17.26-PM

This chart demonstrates the “Heat Island Effect” where two relative close localities have dramatically different temperature histories. Both have essentially the same Lat/Long and CO2, but one has far more heat-absorbing buildings, black asphalt/tar roads/roofs, and steel. West Point has actually COOLED since 1820 and shows absolutely no warming trend. Dr. “Willy” Soon adjusted the data sets for the “Urban Heat Island Effect” and found the globe has a temperature history much like West Point. BTW, New York got its first skyscraper, the Tacoma Building, in 1889, the Manhattan Bridge in 1909, and Yellow Taxi was founded in 1915. The more building and roads were added to Manhattan, the more heat it absorbed, the hotter it got. WestPoint-NY

From 1880 to 2001, the NASS GISS global temperature increase from -0.6 to 0.6, an increase of 1.2 Degree C. Over that same time period, the temperatures in New York City increased from 11 Degree C to 12.5 Degree C, or about 1.5 Degree C. Using New York and West Point, it can be claimed that 100% or more of the NASA GISS recorded warming is due to the “Urban Heat Island Effect,” which is consistent with Dr. Willy Soons’ findings.

It gets worse for NASA GISS, however, because none of the long-term thermometer temperature records examined by Dr. Phil “Hide-the-Decline” Jones show any significant warming, and none of them show warming to the degree of 1.2 Degree C. Before all the hype about global warming reached a fever pitch, Dr. Jones examined and published research on the longest thermometer records available, the oldest starting in 1659 (39 years after the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock).LT1

Dr. Jones compiled records for a) Winter b) Spring c) Summer d) Autumn and e) Annual. The results are devastating to the climate alarmists. None, nada, zip show significant warming, some in fact show cooling, and the vast majority are either flat since 1880, or down. The question becomes “how can NASA GISS show 1.2 Degree C warming when none of the consistent long-term temperature records do?” Why, if we do have global warming, aren’t the thermometers picking it up?  Either the thermometers are lying, or the “experts” at NASA GISS are lying, but they can’t both be right. Clearly, the “Urban Heat Island Effect” combined with relocation/location of the weather stations is what is causing the NASA GISS warming, not CO2. Here is the data to prove it. I’ve added arrows and a line to help better see the relevant points. The arrows signify temperatures either cooler, no warming trend, or temperatures well below a previous peak. The dark bar is to help visualize the starting point of 1880. None, absolutely none, of these charts resembles anything similar to the NASA GISS temperature reconstruction, absolutely none.

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Figure (a) Figure (b) Figure (c) Figure (d) Figure (e)

BTW, the MO of the Climate Alarmists is to deny, deflect, deceive, distort, and attack. One favorite tactic is to “appeal to authority,” who are often the “Fact Checkers.” These favorite attack dogs are a tainted jury at best.

Be sure to “Like,” “Share,” “Subscribe,” and “Comment.” If you are real ambitious, please forward it on to President Trump.

Read More: How to Discuss Global Warming with a “Climate Alarmist.” Scientific Talking Points to Win the Debate

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19 thoughts on “Climate “Science” on Trial; Temperature Records Don’t Support NASA GISS”

  1. There are serious penalties against falsifying GOV records. Hopefully there will be disciplinary actions or prosecutions following….

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    1. @John@EF, care to be more specific? I don’t think the crux of the argument I’ve made rests on “smoothing.” When you choose a consistent thermometer source, there is no warming, smooth that data and you get the same result. Anyway, please provide more details about your concerns.

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