While climate alarmists focus on computer models, anecdotal evidence and “consensus,” real sciences rely on empirical data, hypothesis testing and the scientific method. Real climate scientists claim that natural phenomenon can explain the majority of the observations that climate alarmists attribute to CO2. Recent events have established the conditions where at least two hypothesis will be tested.
The first hypothesis is that the recent decline in Arctic ice is due largely to natural phenomenon related to the direction of the polar winds. The theory goes that when the Arctic winds blow in the direction from Alaska to Iceland, the Arctic ice is blown out into the Northern Atlantic, resulting is a reduction of the Artic ice. It has nothing to do with CO2, and everything to do with the direction of the Arctic winds. Recently, however, the direction of the wind has reversed. If the theory is correct, we should see an increase and thickening of the Arctic ice in the near future.
The second hypothesis is that a calm sun allows more cosmic rays to enter the earth’s atmosphere, and the cosmic rays “seed” clouds. The more clouds there are the less radiation will reach the earth’s surface and oceans. The result should be a slowing in the rate of warming or an actual decline in temperatures. Recently the sun has been very very very inactive, with the sun spots reaching a multi-year low. If the cosmic ray theory is correct, we should see cooling or at least a slowing in the rate of warming going forward.
Unfortunately, the New York Times and other climate alarmist sources will never report on the likely natural causes of climate change and global warming. Fortunately, we have the internet and real science blogs that seek to discover the factual truth. With the polar winds reversing and the sun going into a slumber, real scientists are being given an opportunity to test two of their most interesting hypothesis regarding climate change. My bet is that going forward we will see an increase in amount and thickness of Arctic ice and a period of global cooling. I’ll write follow-up posts to track the progress of this hypothesis test.