I’m not a climate scientist, and I view that as a huge positive when analyzing the climate change data and theory. I don’t have a dog in this fight, my funding and income aren’t dependent upon CO2 being the cause of anything. I haven’t taken endless classes telling me that there is a 98% certainty that this theory is 100% correct. I have the benefit of simply objectively seeking the truth. Because I am not a climate “expert” or climate “scientist” I should never be able to make predictions that are more accurate than the “experts” IF THEIR THEORY IS CORRECT.
Here on CO2isLife we’ve been making a couple of predictions. The first was that the record high temperatures that the climate alarmists were celebrating as proof of their theory, were, in fact, an anomaly caused by a natural phenomenon called an El Nino, and that once that natural event ended, temperatures would plummet. That is in fact what has been happening.
The cooling comes naturally in the wake of the moderate La Nina conditions that have ruled over the past months.
In April surface temperatures 2 meters above the ground plummeted as the following NCEP chart shows:
More importantly, if you remove the areas that are impacted by the “urban heat island effect,” the cooling is even greater. That is an approach we’ve been promoting here on CO2isLife. The point being, if you focus the analysis on the data that isolates the impact of CO2 on temperature, the warming is greatly decreased. Most of the warming the alarmists refer to is caused by non-CO2 causes. There is no urban heat island effect over the oceans or Antarctica. Current temperatures over the oceans are below where they were in 1980.
Foremost the atmosphere above the oceans cooled the most during March, 2017. This is clearly depicted by the UAH: an anomaly of +0.29°K to +0.09°K compared to the WMO 1981-2010 mean.
The other theory we’ve been promoting on CO2isLife is a theory promoted by Tony Heller over on Real Science, that the arctic sea ice is thinning and thickening due to natural causes. A few years back the climate alarmists were claiming that the rapid thinning of the arctic ice was due to global warming. I always found that explanation suspect because ice doesn’t tend to melt in sub-zero temperatures. Digging into the issue further, I discovered that a hurricane was the true cause of the rapid decline of the arctic sea ice. I found it shocking that none of the articles I read about the rapid sea ice decline mentioned a hurricane, the obvious causative factor. Digging even deeper I discovered that there is a cyclical wind pattern that either blows ice out of the arctic circle (resulting in thinning) or traps ice in the arctic circle (resulting in thickening). It turns out, that is exactly what is happening, and Tony Heller has been accurately predicting that result.
Massive Arctic ice thickness growth
The growth in so-called multiyear Arctic sea ice has been considerable over the past nine years. The Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea had little thick multiyear ice back in February 2008. But by February 2017 there was a lot. Massive Growth In Thick Arctic Sea Ice:
My experience following this climate change issue is that the vast majority of observations climate alarmists blame of CO2 are in fact far better explained by natural phenomenon. Rarely have I encountered an event/observation that didn’t seem to have a better natural explanation than CO2. CO2 has serious problems as the causative agent. First is that its only mechanism to affect climate change is to absorb LWIR between the wavelengths of 13 and 18 microns. There isn’t a whole lot of energy at those wavelengths, and the relationship between absorption and concentration is a logarithmic relationship, meaning that even large absolute changes mean very little. The second is that CO2 blankets the earth in an even 400 ppm. It is hard to explain regional changes in temperatures with a constant.
The climate alarmists simply seem to start with the conclusion that CO2 is the cause, and never bother to look for any natural causes. There simply isn’t any money to be made if CO2 isn’t the cause. Following the progress of global temperatures uncorrupted by the urban heat island effect and the thickness of the Arctic sea ice provide evidence that climate science isn’t about explaining the real factors impacting the climate (the results of their models prove they aren’t doing that job well), it is all about generating hype to justify further research funding. If that theory isn’t correct, non-experts like myself and Tony Heller wouldn’t be able to provide better explanations than the experts.
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