Reading Freeman Dyson’s HERETICAL THOUGHTS ABOUT SCIENCE AND SOCIETY I was pleasantly surprised at how many of the flaws in the AGW theory I’ve written about in this blog he also identifies. He also highlights how his critics claim that he has “no degree in meteorology and…therefore not qualified to speak,” to which he states “I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do.” That is almost the exact statement I’ve made countless time in my blog posts, “While I don’t have a background in climatology (whatever that is), I do have a background that includes multivariable modeling, properly applying the scientific method, advanced statistics and mathematics, quantum physics and chemistry both inorganic and organic. I view not being a climate “scientist” as a benefit, more than a hindrance, because I don’t have a dog in this fight, I’m only interested in the truth.”
Why this is important is because both Freeman Dyson and I looked at Climate Change from the perspective of an unbiased, disinterested observer that is trained in physics and mathematics, not political propaganda. We are simply attempting to discover the scientific truth. Because we both are familiar with physics and modeling we both focused on the characteristics of the variables, quality of the data, the significance of the factors, and the explanatory power of the model. Many of my posts focused on examining those issues, and I made statements and conclusions based on my own understanding of the variables and physics. I based those posts on a common sense application of the science, all of which were independently reached, and not based upon any conclusion of “peer-reviewed” research. The selection of those issues was based on my estimate of the importance of those variables in a climate model. I wanted to identify the issues that offered the most bang for the buck in either supporting or debunking the AGW theory.
A single paragraph in Freeman Dyson’s article reads like an Index of CO2isLife posts and clearly demonstrates that when two totally independent people with adequate knowledge to understand the issues looks at the AGW theory and climate models, they both reach the same conclusions. The following is the paragraph mentioned above, with links to the CO2isLife blog posts. It is important to note that all those blog posts were written well before the Freeman Dyson article.
In humid air, the effect of carbon dioxide on radiation transport is unimportant because the transport of thermal radiation is already blocked by the much larger greenhouse effect of water vapor. The effect of carbon dioxide is important where the air is dry, and air is usually dry only where it is cold. Hot desert air may feel dry but often contains a lot of water vapor. The warming effect of carbon dioxide is strongest where air is cold and dry, mainly in the arctic rather than in the tropics, mainly in mountainous regions rather than in lowlands, mainly in winter rather than in summer, and mainly at night rather than in daytime. The warming is real, but it is mostly making cold places warmer rather than making hot places hotter.
The one issue Freeman Dyson did not address is the fact that the oceans are warming. The oceans are by far the major driver of the global climate. They are the earth’s thermostat, holding over 2,000x the energy of the atmosphere. What is warming the oceans is also warming the atmosphere. CO2’s only defined mechanism by which to affect climate change is to absorb and thermalize IR radiation between 13 and 18µ. Those wavelengths don’t penetrate or warm water. To understand what is warming the atmosphere you have to understand what is warming the oceans…and it ain’t CO2 and IR between 13 and 18µ.
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