I’m not a slimate climatist, never have been, never will be, but I know a whole lot about science, the scientific method, statistics, mathematics, computer modeling, quantum physics, chemistry and have a Ph.D. in common sense. Today NBC is reporting about a huge 30,000 sq/mi Polynya the size of Maine opening up in the Weddell Sea. The implication, of course, is that CO2 driven climate change is likely causing it…but they do mention that there isn’t enough data to know the true cause.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense should be able to look at the location of the Polynya and know it isn’t even remotely related to CO2. The Polynya is located in the dead center of a huge ice sheet in an area dominated by sub-zero temperatures…thus the surrounding ice. CO2 is 400 ppm across the entire ice sheet, and the temperatures are sub-zero across the ice sheet as well. CO2 absorbs and emits IR radiation between 13 and 18µ evenly across the entire ice sheet. There is no cosmic magnifying glass that somehow focuses the impact of CO2 emitted IR at a specific spot in the ice sheet. CO2 won’t cause a regional differential like a hole in a specific spot, and not elsewhere, especially warmer areas.
If I take an outdoor pool in the winter that is frozen and put a heating element on the floor of the pool, the ice immediately above the heating element may melt, and stay melted as long as I have the heating element turned on. It takes a lot of continual heat and energy to warm water and melt ice in sub-zero temperatures, and it takes ginormous amounts of continuous energy to melt a hole the size of Maine in an ice sheet. The moment I turn the heating element off, the ice will immediately begin to once again form and close up the hole. The black body temperature of 13 to 18µ is -80°C, so there is no way for CO2 to be burning a hole in the ice, especially when the atmospheric temperature is sub-zero. CO2 simply doesn’t deliver the necessary heat to melt ice in sub-zero temperatures, and there is certainly no way to localize the effect.
Without any data to rely upon what-so-ever other than what NBC provided and common knowledge of the region, I’m almost 100% certain they will discover that the ice is melting from below, not above, and the heat source will be volcanic/geothermal. Anyone with an ounce of common sense would reach that conclusion. The problem is, common sense is completely lacking the field of slimate clience. Facts are, NBC and other climate alarmists will never discover the truth because they simply aren’t looking for it. If you can blame a Maine sized Polynya in sub-zero Antarctica on CO2, you are simply irretrievably lost, and will never see the forest through the trees. The answers are right in front of their face, but they refuse to accept them. All they see is CO2.
Nevertheless, the Weddell Polynya is reasonably well understood. “The Southern Ocean is strongly stratified. A very cold but relatively fresh water layer covers a much warmer and saltier water mass, thus acting as an insulating layer,” explains Prof. Dr. Mojib Latif, head of the Research Division at GEOMAR. Under certain conditions, the warm water of the lower layer can reach the surface and melt the ice. “This is like opening a pressure relief valve – the ocean then releases a surplus of heat to the atmosphere for several consecutive winters until the heat reservoir is exhausted,” adds Professor Latif.
IR between 13 & 18µ does not penetrate the oceans, and cannot be the cause of the deep, warm water. Unless you can explain how 13 & 18µ IR can warm the deep oceans, you can’t blame CO2 for this observation.
Post Publishing Edit #2: New map of Antarctic geothermal heat suggests Steig & Mann 2009 weren’t measuring ‘global warming’
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