The Cosmic Ray Theory offers one of the best explanations of Climate Change. The reason I say that is because unlike the AGW CO2 Theory, the Cosmic Ray Theory actually focuses on the major contributors of the Climate; The Sun, The Clouds and the Oceans. Anytime you build a multivariable model, the model should have the fewest factors possible and those few factors are selected because they provide the greatest amount of explanatory power. The example I always give is the best model for weight loss is “Weight-loss is a function of Exercise (caloric consumption) and Diet (caloric intake).” That simple model will explain 90%+ of weight-loss. It is a simple input/output model, and it has tremendous explanatory power. The explanatory power of CO2 and Temperature is almost non-existent.
The Oceans contain over 2,000x the energy of the atmosphere, cover more than 70% of the Earth’s Surface, are Enormous Heat Sinks, and unlike the atmosphere have a temperature that changes slowly, requiring a great deal of incoming energy to alter that temperature. To explain Climate Change one simply has to explain the Oceans, CO2 is completely irrelevant. While popular junk science focuses on the role the Oceans play in the Carbon Cycle, CO2 and the 13 to 18µ IR Radiation that it absorbs does not warm the Oceans, visible radiation and geothermal heat are what warm the Oceans. The atmosphere above the oceans is usually saturated by water vapor, a greenhouse gas far more potent than CO2.
How then do Cosmic Rays (highly energetic atomic nucleus) affect the climate? The answer is simple, they alter the amount of radiation reaching the oceans. Climate Alarmists discount the role of the Sun by claiming that the Sun’s output is too stable to explain the Earths change in Temperature. That is Sophistry at its best, and one of the Climate Alarmist’s favorite “Strawman Arguments.”
- The radiation by the Sun is anything but constant, Solar Cycles are highly variable
- The amount of radiation radiated from the Sun isn’t the important metric, the amount of warming irradiation that reaches the Earth’s Surface is what is important. Irridation, not radiation is what is important.
- Incoming visible radiation is what warms the oceans, not the outgoing IR Radiation between 13 and 18µ. Even if those wavelengths are important, they are absorbed by water vapor in the atmosphere immediately above the Oceans.
The Cosmic Ray Theory acts much like a Window Shade does on a Hot Summer Day. Imagine an indoor pool with a glass ceiling. The warming visible light reaches the pool and warms the water. Overnight the Pool radiates some heat, moderating the temperature of the atmosphere of the room. The next day the pool warms up again, as more warming visible radiation reaches it. That is the endless process that happens every day and night, and is easily measurable and demonstrated through experimentation.
Anything that would alter the above-mentioned cycle would, therefore, alter the input/output of that model, and affect the temperature of the room. That is what Cosmic Rays do, they act as a shade drawn to cover the ceiling windows, blocking the warming incoming visible radiation from reaching the pool. The Cosmic Rays act as a Rheostat, turning up and turning down the amount of warming visible radiation reaching the oceans and earth’s surface. In this analogy, Clouds are the shades of the Earth. The Cosmic Rays penetrate Earth’s Atmosphere, seeding the formation of Clouds. The Clouds then block incoming visible radiation, resulting in a cooling of the oceans.
- Variations in the Sun’s magnetic activity alter the influx of cosmic rays to the Earth.
- When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds, and the world is cooler.
- When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up.
The only problems I have with this theory are the above bullet points. It strikes me as odd that there would be a natural cycle that would cool the Earth along with the Sun. A logical natural cycle would attempt to compensate for the cooling sun by trapping more heat, not assisting in the cooling. My bet is that with further examination the researchers will discover that the role of Cosmic Rays triggering Clouds isn’t to block incoming radiation, but to blanket the earth in a cloud cover trapping heat from escaping. You can sleep naked in a rain forest, but would freeze if you do so in a desert. My bet is that Mother Nature is more concerned with not letting the Earth Freeze, then she is about warming her up, therefore the Cosmic Ray Triggered Clouds are an effort to conserve existing energy during a weak sun, not an effort to block incoming radiation. That however is just my Hypothesis.
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