NASA GISS is located in NYC, and right down the street is Battery Park. The above tidal gauge is from Battery Park. It shows absolutely zero acceleration since 1850, and in fact, is at a lower level today than in 1998. Sea Level has been flat to falling for two decades. Sea Levels similar to today can be found in the late 1950s, late 1970s, all of the 1980s, and the level reached just a few years ago was also reached back in the 1940s. In other words, Manhattan is at no risk of sinking into the sea, and sea levels at least at this location are far from accelerating. One additional note, thermal expansion of the oceans can cause sea level increase, and those peaks in the late 1990s and recently correlate with the strong El Niño, which has nothing to do with CO2.
The above chart was Tweeted by Gavin Schmidt from NASA GISS. It clearly shows 2 dog-legs, one in 1930 and one in 1993. To start, there is absolutely nothing regarding the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere or physics of the CO2 molecule or Greenhouse Gas Effect that could cause a dog-leg. CO2 increases gradually in the atmosphere, and the absorption of radiation by the CO2 molecule shows a log decay with an increase in concentration. If anything, increases in CO2 would be associated with the slowing of the rate of change in sea level, not an acceleration, and it 100% certainly won’t be linear.
The other problem is that they have published another Sea Level Chart, one by Church and White. It shows a dog-leg not in 1930, not in 1993, but in 1950. It also shows the rate increasing since 1985 and 1998, which is inconsistent with the graph Gavin Tweeted, and 100% consistent with the Battery Tidal Gauge readings. None of these charts line up, and all show different rates and accelerations. How can that be for a “settled science?”
Another problem is that Gavin’s chart dog-legs in 1993 which corresponds with the changing of measurement methodology. The dog-leg occurs precisely at the time data sets change from tidal gauges to satellite. It is worth noting, Climate Alarmists totally ignore satellite temperature data and rely solely upon corrupted ground measurements. Odd how they only rely upon satellite data sets that support their desired conclusion. When we compare satellite sea level and temperature data later you will understand why.
Remember also why sea level would be increasing. The theory goes that CO2 increases, this warms the atmosphere, this warming causes glaciers to melt AT AN INCREASING RATE, and therefore sea level increases AT AN INCREASING RATE. The problem with this theory is that the N Pole Sea Ice and Greenland Glaciers are MELTING FROM BELOW. The Greenland Glaciers and N Pole have sub-zero atmospheric temperatures for most of the year. Volcanic/geothermal activity is melting the Greenland glacier, and warm oceans are melting the ice at the N Pole. None of that real causes has anything to do with CO2.
MODTRAN and isolating ground measurements uncorrupted by the Urban Heat Island Effect shows that CO2 has absolutely zero impact on lower atmosphere temperatures. Nothing in the properly selected data sets would point the finger at CO2 as the cause of sea level increase.
While instrumental temperature data doesn’t make the case for CO2 driven warming, the fraudulent Hockeystick does. Michael Mann “conveniently” forgot to add thermometer data to his Hockeystick data set until 1902, and only dropped the proxies post-1980. Guess what? The Hockeystick dog-legs in you guessed it, 1902 and 1980. Imagine that, what a coincidence. This, however, creates another problem, the sea level charts don’t dog-leg in 1902 or 1980, they dog-leg in 1930 and 1993, or 1950 depending on what chart you choose. It appears Gavin and Michael failed to share notes because one or both have to be wrong. Their charts contradict themselves.
Why did Michael Mann fail to use instrumental data? Because longterm thermometer data uncorrupted by the Urban Heat Island Effect shows no warming. The following graphic is from Central England going back to the mid-1600s. It totally contradicts the Hockeystick, as do temperatures from Antarctica and other uncorrupted locations. Michael Mann may believe tree rings, coral and ice cores are proper ways to accurately measure temperature, but most of us think a thermometer is the best way. Maybe Michael Mann missed that class.
The other problem is that the oceans are warming. Thermal expansion can cause sea levels to rise, but what causes the oceans to warm? CO2 and LWIR between 13 and 18µ can’t and doesn’t warm water, visible radiation does. To explain sea level, you have to explain why the oceans are warming and CO2 isn’t the answer. Recent research has confirmed that more warming visible radiation has been reaching the oceans because our atmosphere has cleaner air. Even with a cooling sun, more warming radiation has been reaching the oceans. The reasons for the clean air and greater incoming visible radiation have nothing to do with CO2.
In reality, CO2 has nothing to do with warming or sea level, and the charts produced by Gavin and Michael prove it. They rely upon statistical sophistry to make their case. If you accept that the sun is warming the oceans, everything starts to make sense.
Simply look at the actual tidal gauge from Battery Park. It shows peaks in 1998, 2008 and 2017. Those line up perfectly with the satellite temperature measurements which are clearly correlated with ocean temperatures and phenomena like El Niño and La Niño. CO2 doesn’t cause El Niño and La Niños. Gavin and Michael simply aren’t looking for the correct answer because the answer is right in front of their eyes. Problem is, if I’m right, their funding goes bye bye, and that is what this is really all about. The truth would ruin their careers and livelihoods.
Simply put, the truth is there for anyone to see if they simply look. Climate Alarmists whose livelihoods depend on CO2 being the cause simply have zero incentive to find the truth. Real scientists and people seeking the truth simply have to refer ever claim made by a Climate Alarmists back the only defined mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate change. The only mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate change is through the thermalization of LWIR between 13 and 18µ. Those wavelengths won’t melt ice or warm water, and when CO2 is thermalized in the atmosphere warms the air to a whopping -80°C. Last I looked, -80°C won’t melt ice.
Note: The One Graphic is of Gavin’s predecessor Jimmy Hansen, not Gavin.
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