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Recently there was a debate featuring Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. Curry, Dr. Moore and Dr. Titley. This debate followed the structure of just about all other debates on Climate Change. Each participant gave their presentation and then went into Q&A. Dr. Curry posted her presentation on her website. (Click Here) It is an extremely fine presentation, but unlikely to sway too many opinions when matched against Climate Sophist Michael Mann. From the review I’ve seen, that seems to have been the case. (Click Here)
Going in, I think it’s unlikely that anyone would find an event such as this sufficient to change a mind that’s already made up. What it can do, however, is introduce a topic, or suggest an idea, that might lead an individual to do some deeper exploring.
The benefit we now have is that we know Michael Mann’s approach, presentation, and focus. It is like disclosure in a court trial. Recently in the Exxon vs San Francisco Trial Dr. Myles Allen gave his best evidence against CO2 and it was a complete and utter joke. It was pure unadulterated sophistry, 100% completely dependent upon the Judge being newspaper educated on the issue. Climate Sophists like Allen and Mann are 100% completely dependent upon people not looking behind the curtain. Their arguments are as shallow as a dime and as resilient as a paper tiger. Here is a point by point dressing down of Dr. Allen’s court testimony. (Click Here) (Click Here)
It is this cross-examination approach that should be used in debates against Mann and Allen. If the information provided by Dr. Allan and Mann is the best a Climate Sophist can offer, they literally have no arguments at all. Here is what Dr. Mann used in the recent debate. (Click Here)
Dr. Michael Mann, at ease and confident at the podium, led off the evening by stating his hope for “a robust conversation” on how to address climate change. His presentation was based around the idea that the only debate to be had is on what to do about man-made climate change. Indeed, he stated this position several times, reinforcing it by clarifying that there’s no worthy debate to be had on whether there’s a problem, or that man has caused it. As a justification for this, Dr. Mann explained that the science behind anthropogenic climate change is verifiable fact. Incontrovertible. Well known and agreed upon for over a hundred years.
Of all the claims made throughout the evening, this is the one I found to be the most personally problematic. Clearly scientists such as Curry and Moore aren’t, to borrow a tired phrase, “denying” the basic science of atmospheric and radiative physics. To claim otherwise, or even to imply through omission, that they do so is unfair, untrue, and frankly, does nothing to increase the credibility of the presenter.
At any rate, moving on, as anyone familiar with this subject could guess, Dr. Mann’s presentation centered on his “iconic” hockey stick graph, noting that this year marks the 20th anniversary of its publication. The point he made sure to emphasize with the hockey stick was the “warming spike” of the late 20th century is unnatural, and unprecedented in tens of thousands of years. He noted that 2014, 2015, and 2016 were each record-breaking years for global temperatures, and cited his 2017 paper which ostensibly demonstrated there was only a 1 in 3000 chance that three consecutive years of global warming would be due to natural causes. In the course of his presentation, Dr. Mann made two specific claims: temperatures were now likely to rise by 4 to 5 degrees Celsius and sea levels by 6 to 8 feet.
Michael Mann is a narcissistic megalomaniacal bully. (Click Here) He is the epitome of a participation trophy snowflake. He has been showered with praise and rewards from all his progressive supporters (Click Here) (Click Here), and they have emboldened him into thinking that he can get away with anything, even statistical fraud like “Mike’s Nature Trick…to Hide the Decline.” He is the Scientific equivalent of treasonous FBI Agent Peter Strzok (Click Here). He was put in a position of public trust, and he completely betrayed that trust. (Click Here)
Fortunately, Michael Mann’s “science” is so bad, even the most scientifically illiterate audience would be able to understand the flaws. The Progressive CAGW Theory is a giant house of cards, founded upon Michael Mann’s infamous “Hockey Stick” graph. A graph that he is completely dependent upon for his case and credibility. (Click Here) (Click Here)
Dr. Mann’s presentation centered on his “iconic” hockey stick graph, noting that this year marks the 20th anniversary of its publication. The point he made sure to emphasize with the hockey stick was the “warming spike” of the late 20th century is unnatural, and unprecedented in tens of thousands of years.
Therefore the proper way to defeat Michael Mann isn’t to provide arguements that run 100% counter to the manufactured “Consensus.” The proper approach is to demonstrate that the “Consensus” is based 100% upon garbage science, or “Fake Science” as President Trump would call it. The people hate to be lied to, and the mood of the people today makes this approach ideal. The Fake News Media, The FBI/CIA/Justice Department scandal, the manufactured Russian Collusion, the childish/bratish blind resistance, the obstructionist Democrats have awaken America to the complete and utter corruption of the Progressive establishments and way of doing business. Democrats even rigged their own primary. How off the charts despicable is that?
We’ve already dismantled Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick” chart in various earlier posts:
And the list goes on and on, but for this post, we want to focus on few key points for discrediting the “Hockey Stick” chart.
Every debate on Climate Change should always revert back to the actual science of the GHG Effect. Key points about the GHG are:
- CO2’s only mechanism by which to affect climate change is through the thermalization of 13 to 18µ LWIR. That is the only mechanism defined by the GHG Effect.
- CO2 is a weak GHG, having no permanent dipole. (Click Here)
- The LWIR absorption of CO2 shows a logarithmic decay, i.e. its impact on temperatures isn’t linear. (Click Here)
- The physics behind the CO2 molecule doesn’t support dog-legs in temperature charts. Its effect is gradual and decays. (Click Here)
- H2O saturates the absorption of 13 to 18µ LWIR in the lower atmosphere, making CO2 immaterial to the temperature of the lower atmosphere where all Michael Mann’s measurements come from. (Click Here)
When the above GHG principles are applied to the “Hockey Stick” it crumbles under scrutiny. I doubt Michael Mann’s ego would be able to withstand the onslaught that follows. Michael Mann is truly an emperor with no clothes, a wizard behind a curtain, a con Mann of the greatest degree.
How to Discredit the “Hockey Stick” and trigger Michael Mann into having a public meltdown.
- Michael Mann conveniently chose to reconstruct only the past 1,000 years. By Cherry Picking that time period he was able to pick the peak of the Medieval Warming and follow temperatures down into the Little Ice Age, and portray the recent warming as abnormal. Problem is, if you zoom out, the past 116 years aren’t anomalies if applied to the entire Holocene.
- CO2 increased over the Holocene while temperatures fell.
- Nothing about the physics of the CO2 molecule would ever support the sharp “dog-legs” of 1902 and 1980. CO2’s effect is gradual and declining. It isn’t the concentration of CO2 that matters, it is the amount of radiation it absorbs.
- CO2 has zero impact on outgoing radiation in the lower atmosphere according to MODTRAN. The reason for this is that H2O saturates the absorption of 13 to 18µ LWIR. Note in the graphics how changing CO2 from 400 ppm to 800 ppm does absolutely nothing to the outgoing radiation. 100% of Michael Mann’s temperature measurements and proxies are taken from the layer of the atmosphere where CO2 has no impact. Upward IR Heat Flux remains at 294.2 W/M^2. (Click Here) (Click Here) (Click Here)
- The Hockey Stick shows a decline from 1,000 until 1902, and then a sharp reversal in temperature trends. Another dog-leg occurs in 1980. The dog-legs occur exactly when the construction methodology changes. Nothing about the physics of the CO2 molecule would support sharp changes in temperatures in 1902 and 1980. Michael Mann’s chart seems to imply that by changing reconstruction inputs it somehow caused global temperatures to change. If that is the case Michael Mann also suffers from a God complex. (Click Here)
- Michael Mann’s chart shows a rapid increase in temperatures post-1902, yet direct observation of tidal gauges, i.e. unadjusted data, shows no acceleration of sea level. (Click Here)
- The oceans control the global climate and contain 2,000x the energy held in the atmosphere. To understand the global climate you must understand the oceans. (Click Here). LWIR between 13 to 18µ doesn’t penetrate water, and it won’t warm water. (Click Here) The following chart highlights the ocean’s impact on the N and S Pole. The N Pole is subject to Ocean heat, whereas the S Pole is a land mass. The N Pole shows warming, the S Pole does not. CO2 is 400 ppm at both the N and S Poles.
- Michael Mann used a bizarre method of selecting and combining proxies and statistical methods prior to 1980. Prior to 1902 Michael Mann used no instrumental data. I repeat, no thermometer data was used in the construction of the “Hockey Stick” prior to 1902. Unfortunately, that isn’t a joke. (Click Here) Observing the longest continuous instrumental record of temperatures from Central England going back to 1650 the reason becomes obvious, there has been no warming since 1740 if you use thermometers instead of Coral, Tree Rings, and Ice Cores. (Click Here)
- Michael Mann also used instrumental data what was corrupted by the well known Urban Heat Island Effect. If you select data sets to control for the Urban Heat Island Effect and atmospheric CO2 you discover that all of the warming post-1902 Michael Mann claims is due to CO2 vanishes. (Click Here) (Click Here) In reality, Michael Mann produced a chart demonstration of the Urban Heat Island Effect and falsely attributes the warming to CO2. (Click Here) That is sophistry, not science.
- CO2 doesn’t lead temperates, it lags temperatures. This is clearly demonstrated in the ice core record. CO2 simply doesn’t drive temperatures. There is no defined mechanism by which CO2 would increase before warming to end an ice age and no mechanism by which CO2 would decrease before temperatures to start an ice age. CO2 has been as high as 7,000 ppm and never caused CAGW, why would this time be any different? (Click Here)
- It takes a great deal of heat to melt ice. LWIR between 13 to 18µ is very low energy radiation. (Click Here) Many of the claims Michael Mann will make about glaciers melting are in areas with sub-zero temperatures year round. Michael Mann should be challenged to explain how ice melts in sub-zero temperatures. (Click Here) (Click Here)
- The most accurate instrumental data is satellite data, and it clearly shows the variability of temperatures tied to ocean cycles, not CO2. CO2 doesn’t cause El Niños and La Niñas.
- Climate models tying CO2 to temperatures failed miserably. The problem is Michael Mann and his ilk are trying to force a linear relationship between CO2 and temperature that simply doesn’t exist. CO2 is a near linear variable, CO2’s absorption of LWIR shows a logarithmic decay, and temperatures are highly non-linear and almost random. A linear relationship simply doesn’t exist and no amount of data “adjustments” will change that fact. (Click Here) If something is understood, it can be modeled. Micheal Mann and his ilk haven’t been unable to model the CO2 drives temperatures theory, even after adjusting the data. (Click Here) (Click Here)
- Climate change is the norm. Never in the past 600,000 years of Ice Core Data has the climate not been changing. Michael Mann needs to identify where in the last 600,000 years climate wasn’t changing, and to identify where the ideal climate would be. If he can’t answer those questions, all this is for naught. He should also be asked to proves that a certain level of CO2 would deliver the desired result. The benefit of having so much climate data is that no matter what level he chooses for the optimum CO2 level, there are data sets out there showing highly variable climates for those levels.
- After spending trillions of dollars fighting climate change, Coal has the same energy share as it had 20 years ago. (Click Here) As highlighted above in the CO2 graph, the trend in atmospheric CO2 has also remained unchanged. Basically, we have gotten absolutely zero measurable benefits from alternative energy. (Click Here) Michael Mann needs to be asked is this a wise use of our public dollars? (Click Here) (Click Here) (Click Here) (Click Here)
- The “Hockey Stick” isn’t the only problem with climate data. (Click Here) (Click Here) Tony Heller over at Real Science does a remarkable job tracking the fraud. (Click Here)
- Satellite temperatures closely track the ocean temperatures as demonstrated above. LWIR between 13 to 18µ doesn’t penetrate or warm water. The oceans have been warming, and the cause is the increased transparency of the atmosphere. (Click Here) (Click Here)
- As noted above, CO2 has no measurable impact on the lower atmosphere where Michael Mann gets all his temperature readings. The reason for this is that H2O, by far the most potent GHG, can reach levels of 4 parts per 100. The atmosphere has a maximum density near the earth surface, so conduction and convection play a large role in the transfer of energy. The atmosphere thins, cools and precipitates H2O with altitude. As the atmosphere thins, radiation starts to play a much more important role. Radiation is extremely rapid heat transfer, traveling at the speed of light. Once the stratosphere is reached, CO2 is the only remaining major GHG, representing 400 ppm in a very thin atmosphere. Because of the thinness of the air, and scarcity of CO2 molecules, CO2 actually works to COOL the atmosphere by assisting the transfer of energy out of the atmosphere. That isn’t a typo, CO2 cools the only layer of the atmosphere where it has a major impact. (Click Here
- Lastly, and possibly most damning, is that the “Hockey Stick” suffers from extreme heteroscedasticity. The distal variation is much higher than the proximal variation. In the year 1,000 temperature variation ranges from -0.8 to +0.4, in the year 1902 temperature variation ranges from -0.8 to -0.2, and then post 1902 the behavior totally changes with the introduction of instrumental data. Remember, there is nothing about the underlying physics of the CO2 molecule or GHG effect that would explain a temperature dog-leg of accelerating temperatures. (Click Here) Why this is so damning is that the extreme variation identified in the “Hockey Stick” occurred with extremely stable CO2 levels. CO2 levels between the year 1,000 and 1902 ranged between 275 and 285 ppm. CO2 simply can’t explain the extreme variation of the past 1,000 years. CO2 was essentially a constant, yet temperatures variations were much higher than today. Temperature variation around the year 1350 had a range between +0.5 to -1.0. If you substitute data that has been controlled for the Urban Heat Island Effect and H2O, temperatures post-1920 are stable, even though CO2 has increased over 30%. If Michael Mann understood his own chart he would understand that it does far more to rule out CO2 as the cause of warming, than it implicates CO2.
In conclusion, future debates including Michael Mann should not be directed at providing an alternative to Michael Mann’s position, they should be directed at exposing him as the fraud that he is, and proving that the research that supports his position is the greatest piece of scientific garbage ever produced. The above talking points presented in a public debate would go a long way towards erasing Michael Mann, the Peter Strzok of the Scientific Community, from the record books and arena of those trying to influence public policy and doing serious scientific research. (Click Here) Law firms are likely to seek Michael Mann out as they seek to loot our energy industries, and that should be enough evidence of his credibility or lack thereof. (Click Here) The only reason Michael Mann has any credibility at all is because the majority of the population is unaware of the facts covered in this article. The more people know about the real science behind Climate Change, the less power Michael Mann will have to deceive them.
Be sure to click on all links to get the full understanding of just how corrupt and fraudulent Michael Mann and is research truly is. Its simply can’t be fully explained in a single posting. With the FBI scandal in the headlines, now is the perfect time to expose corruption in another institution critical to our society, the institution of Science. As a reminder, Eisenhower warned America about people like Michael Mann. (Click Here) (Click Here)
Additional Concise Descriptions of the Science:
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