The above description is from NOAA’s website explaining the mechanisms that drive Outgoing Longwave Infrared Radiation (LWIR). As a refresher, the entire Greenhouse Gas Effect is based upon the atmosphere “trapping” outgoing LWIR, 100%. The Climate Alarmists claim that CO2, by thermalizing outgoing LWIR, is responsible for 100% of the climate’s warming since the start of the industrial age. Climate alarmists claim that CO2 and CO2 alone is the cause.
I will give any reader $1,000 that can find a mention of CO2 anywhere in NOAA’s explanation of what alters outgoing LWIR, $1,000. Nowhere in NOAA’s explanation of the factors that alter outgoing LWIR do they mention CO2. How in the hell can one have a discussion about outgoing LWIR, the entire foundation of the Greenhouse Gas Effect, and fail to mention CO2 if CO2 is the major cause of trapping the outgoing LWIR? The answer is simple, NOAA doesn’t mention CO2 because CO2 isn’t a major factor in altering outgoing LWIR. As mentioned plenty of times before on this Blog, CO2 actually works to COOL the atmosphere, it doesn’t contribute to warming. Source
To understand why NOAA’s description and data are so damning, one must first understand what CO2 has been doing. CO2 has been in a near linear uptrend in atmospheric concentrations since data starts in 1955. For CO2 to be the sole cause of global warming, outgoing LWIR would need to be inversely related in atmospheric CO2 levels. As CO2 went up, outgoing LWIR would have to go down. The variability of the CO2 would need to match the variability of the outgoing LWIR. If CO2 was in a smooth linear uptrend, outgoing LWIR would need to be its mirror and be in a smooth linear downtrend. 100% means 100%. In scientific terms that would mean that the correlation between CO2 and outgoing LWIR would be a perfect -1.0, with an R-Square of a perfect 100.
Here is the CO2 chart. It is clearly in a smooth near linear uptrend.
Now, if CO2 is truly the sole cause of trapping outgoing LWIR, the outgoing LWIR chart would have to look like the CO2 chart’s mirror image, with a perfect -1.0 correlation. This is what NOAA’s outgoing LWIR chart would look like if CO2 was, in fact, the cause of trapping 100% of the additional LWIR.
What then does NOAA’s outgoing LWIR chart look like? Does it look like the mirror image of atmospheric CO2, like the climate alarmists claim? Not even close, in fact, it totally debunks the CO2 drives temperature theory. As we’ve pointed out countless times on this Blog, CO2 actually works to cool the atmosphere, it doesn’t warm the atmosphere. Source
The above chart proves CO2 is completely unrelated to temperature, completely. Blue means that OLR has INCREASED!!!, Red means OLR has decreased. Post-1997, the chart is mostly Blue, meaning OLR has INCREASED!!! i.e. LESS HEAT IS BEING TRAPPED!!! Over that time CO2 increased from around 360 to 409 PPM. An Inconvenient Truth was released in 2006, during a hot spell. OLR is much higher today than in 2006.
Is OLR tied to atmospheric temperatures? Let’s first take a look at what drives global atmospheric temperatures, the oceans. The oceans control the temperature, humidity, and clouds in the atmosphere. In other words, the oceans control the most potent and important greenhouse gas, H2O. Here is the El Nino/La Nina Cycles.
El Ninos and La Ninas do for an almost exact mirror image of themselves. Imagine that. El Ninos increase H2O and high, reflective and cold clouds. Here are the two charts in edited to start in 1975. They share Red Peaks in 2017, 2010, 2007, 1997, 1990 thru 1995, 1987, 1984, 1982.
Now let’s look at temperatures. Ocean temperatures have since 1979 have increased by about 0.4°C. The reason I started in 1979 will become apparent next.
The temperature data Climate Alarmists absolute hate, the extremely accurate Satellite data, also shows about a 0.4°C increase over that time. Why this warming isn’t due to CO2 is because 1) CO2 can’t explain such volatility due to its smooth linear increase and 2) LWIR between 13 and 18µ, the wavelengths CO2 absorbs, don’t warm water.
Atmospheric temperatures were stuck in a range between 1979 and 1997, and then a very strong El Nino knocked them out of that range, and temperatures remained mostly above average post-1997. The problem this creates for the CO2 and its Greenhouse Gas Effect Climate Alarmists is that as mentioned above, post-1997 OLR has INCREASED!!! What that proves is that if OLR has increased AND Temperatures have increased during that same time period, the only explanation would be that more INCOMING radiation is reaching the earth’s surface.
The problem is, the sun has actually been less active. How can you explain more incoming radiation when the sun has been sleeping? A cooling globe is usually associated with a quiet sun. The reason for this is that when the sun is quiet magnetically speaking, more cosmic rays reach earth triggering low clouds. The low clouds increase the earth’s albedo, reflecting back much of the incoming warming radiation. Source
What then could explain the warming during a period of a quiet sun? Cleaner air. The transparency of the atmosphere has actually increased lately, offsetting the cooling effect of the increased cosmic rays and clouds. Source
From the above analysis, it is apparent that many factors impact the climate. The one factor, however, that can be ruled out as the cause of warming is CO2. There is no way CO2, which causes an increase in OLR, can be the cause of global warming due to the Greenhouse Gas Effect.
Once again, I’ll give any reader $1,000 to find a mention of CO2 in NOAA’s explanation of OLR. The introductory graphic is an actual clip from the NOAA website.
Post Publishing Edit:
Speak of the Devil. Browsing around on the WUWT Website I stumbled upon this. It looks like NASA Goddard is also identifying the connections.
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