CO2 and its Greenhouse Gas Effect thermalize OUTGOING Longwave Infrared Radiation between 13 and 18µ wavelength. The GHG effect can never cause a short-term spike in temperatures, and it will never cause record high temperatures. The reason is simple, the GHG effect slows cooling, it never adds additional energy to a system. The earth has to be warmed FIRST before its outgoing radiation can be thermalized.
The only way CO2 and the GHG effect could contribute to record high temperatures was if in fact CO2 “trapped” heat in the atmosphere, preventing it from leaving the system. That mechanism would be much like stepping on a hose, where the pressure (temperature) behind the foot would increase, and any additional water would simply add to the pressure. That doesn’t happen, CO2 doesn’t “trap” heat, and in fact, Europe was setting record cold temperatures just last winter.
Since, at the moment, Europe is preparing for probably the strongest cold outbreak this winter (February 2018). Weather models are consistently predicting lows reaching -30 °C or even lower in some parts of the continent. With strong winds in some parts, the wind chill index will make the cold even more unpleasant. While some all-time coldest temperature records will probably stay intact, it is an excellent opportunity to visualize historically lowest temperature records for every European country. (Source)
There simply is no mechanism by which thermalizing outgoing LWIR between 13 and 18µ can cause BOTH record colds and record highs in a period of LESS than 1 year, and then, let it cool again as expected.
If in fact CO2 and other GHGs “trapped” heat and contributed to record high temperatures you would have to show that record high temperatures were becoming more frequent and extreme. In reality, just the opposite is happening. Heat spells are becoming less frequent and less extreme.
The Quiet Sun Paradox
Amid the dimmest Sun since 1978 – a month without sunspots (Source)
One of the more counterintuitive aspects of the global climate is that A QUIET SUN MAY LEAD TO GLOBAL WARMING, and an angry and active sun may lead to cooling. A cool sun, or one with no sunspots, may lead to global warming because of what is called the Cosmic Ray effect. When there is an angry sun, it showers the atmosphere with Cosmic Rays which in turn seed higher level clouds. HIgher level clouds increase the albedo of the atmosphere and REFLECT much of the radiation back into outer space, preventing warming radiation from every reaching the earth. Cosmic rays and the clouds they seed act like pulling the window shades to cool a hot room.
“It gives an understanding of how changes caused by Solar activity or by supernova activity can change climate.” (Source)
Recently however we’ve had a record-setting quite sun with an extended period of no sunspots. That means fewer cosmic rays and fewer upper atmosphere clouds. Combine that with a high-pressure system pushing more clouds out of the European climate theater and you have a recipe for a record-setting heat wave AND IT HAS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2.
Just take a look at the pictures from Europe during this period. They all show basically nearly cloudless clear skies. Those clear skies are like opening the shades in a room to allow unhindered warming visible radiation to reach the earth. (Note, the lower atmosphere clouds in this photo actually work to trap heat by reflecting it back to earth)
Expert reaction to European heatwave (Source)
“Unrelenting daytime heat due to clear skies, combined with hot and humid air being pulled into central Europe from Spain and northern Africa, are a potentially lethal combination. Children, the elderly and people with underlying health conditions are particularly at risk, although everyone will have to modify their behaviour to stay out of trouble.
“The hot temperatures forecast for central Europe this week could break records for June. The heatwave is due to high pressure, which leads to clear skies over Europe but also drags up hot air from northern Africa. Forecasts suggest the heatwave could last until the weekend.
Facts are, this heat wave will soon end, temperatures will soon fall, and CO2 will continue to increase. The fall in temperatures won’t correspond to a fall in CO2, but it will correspond to a fall in atmospheric pressures and the return of clouds and colder air currents over Europe. Blaming CO2 for occasional high-pressure systems and fewer clouds is pure sophistry. Those atmospheric patterns have been occurring since the beginning of time and they have no relationship to CO2.
France’s Fake Record: Weather Agencies Can Alter Datasets, But Can’t Rewrite The Newspapers (Source)
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