Looks Scary? Think Again

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus, in one chart
Italy tried to stem its outbreak, belatedly. We’re on the same course. (Source)

If this graphic is accurate, and I have no reason to believe it isn’t, it is exceptionally good news for America and the leadership of President Trump. This apples to Volkswagen comparison looks scary…but it isn’t. America has 330 million people, Italy has 60 million and a socialized medical system. On a per-capita basis, we are basically 5.5x better off than Italy. Sure our absolute numbers may match, mostly concentrated in 3 States, but on a per-capita basis, the US is far far far better off.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario. California has 40 million people and NY has 20 million people. Combined they have 104 deaths and 14,000 cases. Italy has 54k cases and 5k deaths. Throwing in Washington and New Jersey we get an additional 18k + 94 and 13k + 16, for a grand total of 45k cases and 214 deaths. The current deaths of all States combined is 347. (Source)

The US would have to have 5.5x the number of cases in the next 8 days to match that graphic on a per-capita basis, and deaths would have to increase by a factor of almost 20x just to reach the absolute number of Italy (5k), and need to increase by 110x to meet it on a per-capita basis.

What that chart is likely to ultimately demonstrate is how successful President Trump’s leadership has been in handling this pandemic. No thanks to the Democrats.

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