Scott Adams of Dilbert fame recently sent out a request for the top 5 skeptical or pro-global warming arguments. His challenge can be seen here:
#1) The global community has spent literally trillions of dollars, both directly and indirectly through regulation and opportunity costs trying to reduce CO2 emissions. The benefits of those expenditures cannot even be measured. The trend of CO2 simply remains unaltered by climate change spending. That money is being spent on the highly speculative belief what man can actually alter atmospherically CO2, a level many believe is dictated by the oceans, and not man through a relationship called “Henry’s Law.” The point being, that even if global warming is a real threat, spending money on reducing carbon emissions doesn’t seem to deliver any benefits. Society would be better spent spending money on climate change mitigation like reinforcing dams, desalination plants, forest management to prevent fires, and of course building schools, hospitals, roads, and critical infrastructure. (More)
#2) Global temperature records are “adjusted” on a biblical scale, rendering them effectively useless in any real field of science. Conclusions based on garbage data are simply garbage. Fortunately, the physics of a CO2 molecule are constant, as is the concentration throughout the atmosphere. CO2 produced today has the same physical properties of CO2 produced 1,000s of years ago. CO2 is 410 ppm at the N Pole, S Pole, Equator, Surface, and 70 km up. In other words, the effect of CO2 is constant no matter where you are on earth, so you don’t need 1,000s of measurement units, you simply need 1 data set that has been measured and recorded in a constant fashion throughout time without any major changes to the surrounding environment. That location is Central England which is the longest continuous instrumental record of temperature. The Central England data set shows no relationship between CO2 and temperature since 1650, and current temperatures at or below levels reached in the 1600s.
#3) Atmospheric temperatures show warming due to many factors other than CO2. Water vapor is by far the most potent greenhouse gas and has been increasing due to the “greening” of the N. Hemisphere. The urban heat island effect can cause warming as hot roads and buildings replace cooling grasslands and forests. The sun cycles, cosmic rays, and clouds also alter the atmospheric temperatures. To adjust for those factors one needs to identify a location that controls for the urban heat island effect and water vapor. That “control” is Antarctica where there is no heat island effect, no water vapor, and CO2 that is identical to the rest of the globe. The temperatures in Antarctica show no warming what so ever since the 1800s when records began, and CO2 was around 40% lower.
#4) The Hockeystick chart, on which most of this Climate Change Hoax is based, is some of the most damning evidence against CO2 being the cause of warming. The Hockeystick chart shows two distinct “dog-legs.” The first dog-leg occurs in 1902 and coincides with the addition of instrumental records (we will ignore the obvious data manipulation of not including the instrumental record that exists prior to 1902) and the second dog-leg occurs when all proxies are dropped in 1980. The dog-legs occur along with the data composition adjustments. There is no physical explanation as to why temperatures would dog-leg without a corresponding dog-leg in CO2. The trend in temperatures makes dramatic trend changes, yet the trend in CO2 remained constant. Clearly, something other than the CO2 molecule must have caused the dog-legs. The physics of the CO2 molecule, and its absorption of long-wave infrared electromagnetic radiation, simply don’t support dog-legs in the temperature graphic.
5) Real science doesn’t rely on absolute levels, they measure the marginal changes. Real science looks at the ΔY for a ΔX, or change in Y for a change in X. If one looks at the “adjustments” to the global temperatures, they are all done so in order to make temperatures more linear. By making them more linear, the models that relate CO2 to temperature produce better results. CO2 is linear, and it is pretty hard to manipulate that data because it is virtually constant around the globe. Temperatures are anything but linear, so to make the case that CO2 and Temperatures are related, the temperature data needs to be “adjusted” to make the data set more linear. The problem is, the absolute level of CO2 isn’t what matters. CO2 doesn’t warm the atmosphere, the amount of long-wave infrared electromagnetic radiation that the CO2 absorbs is what warms the atmosphere. The marginal absorption of long-wave infrared electromagnetic radiation by CO2 isn’t linear, it is logarithmic. What that means is that each additional CO2 molecule added to the atmosphere absorbs LESS long-wave infrared electromagnetic radiation. This is the law of diminishing marginal returns. CO2 is like taking aspirin. The first one reduces the pain by 90%, and next one 5%, and on and on until taking an additional aspirin will actually make you sick. The fact that the physics of the CO2 molecule doesn’t support a linear trend in temperatures, and yet all the temperature “adjustments” work to make the temperature more linear pretty much proves this is scientific fraud. The “adjustments” are made to accommodate the models, not the real physics of the CO2 molecule and the greenhouse gas effect.
6) Temperatures have been extremely volatile during the Holocene. There is nothing abnormal about the volatility over the past 150 years. Most of the volatility occurred with stable CO2, proving something other than CO2 causes extreme changes in climate.
7) The geological record shows that CO2 has been as high as 7,000 ppm, and earth NEVER experienced catastrophic warming. The earth fell into an ice age when CO2 was 4,000 ppm, or nearly 10x the level of today. CO2 and temperatures are simply not related on a geologic scale.
8) Water vapor and atmospheric temperatures are almost indistinguishable. Where there is water vapor there is warmth. CO2 is constant throughout the atmosphere and cannot cause this type of temperature profile.
9) If something is understood, it can be modeled. Climate models fail miserably and will continue to fail miserably because CO2 and Temperatures aren’t linearly related. As time passes, it is a 100% certainty that the difference between the measured UNADJUSTED temperatures and the predicted model results will INCREASE.
10) Al Gore’s chart demonstrates that A) Temperatures LEAD CO2 by between 800 and 1,500 years and B) Change is the normal condition for the Climate. An unchanging climate doesn’t exist in the geological record. Mother Nature simply likes climatic variations, and trying to stop natural cycles is probably the most idiotic idea ever conceived by mankind.
Please post this on Scott Adams’ Twitter and Blog
This is what happens with climate change, the promoters of the global warming hoax don’t refute the arguments of the skeptics, they attack the skeptic personally and professionally. Scott Adams approach helps to change all this. He is providing a positive and constructive way to address this extremely important public policy and spending issue.
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