Simple, Objective and Inexpensive Approach to Exposing the CAGW Hoax; Live By The Computer, Die By The Computer

Stepwise

Climate Models are simply multi-variable linear regression models. What that means is that they try to find a “best-fit” line between a single dependent variable and multiple independent variables that minimize the error between the regression line and the actual value. The classic multiple variable linear regression is the model for weight loss. Weight loss is largely a function of exercise and caloric intake. Those two independent factors are likely to explain 90%+ of the variation of the dependent variable weight loss. The remaining 10% may be due to your H20 intake, music you listen to while exercising, and your age and sex.

The problem with these kinds of models is that you don’t know what factors are significant and what ones aren’t, and how significant they are. You simply don’t know if exercise is responsible for 60% or 30%, caloric intake 30% or 60%, H20 5% or other, age and sex 5% or other, or what the weights or coefficients should be assigned to each variable. Also, if you leave out significant variables, or manually assign fixed weights to certain variables, the results are meaningless.

While I don’t know for sure, my analysis of the IPCC Climate Model Results leads me to believe that they fix a heavy weight on CO2, and either fix lesser weights to the sun, clouds and ocean temperatures and use ground measurements are used over satellite temperatures as the dependent variable. CO2 has been increasing in a linear manner, and the ground measurements have been “adjusted” to make them more linear, conveniently improving the output of the models. Satellite measurements have not been “adjusted” to fit the CAGW theory.

The easiest way to develop a real climate model is to simply allow the computer to objectively build the model for you, removed from bias, subjectivity, and preconceived outcomes. That is easily done with a computer statistical procedure called “Stepwise.”  Once simply takes the available data sets for Solar Radiation, Ocean Temperatures, Albedo, CO2, etc etc etc as the independent variables, and satellite temperature data as the dependent variable. Run the procedure “Stepwise” and it will run countless models adding some factors, dropping some factors, and changing the coefficients on the factors until it discovers the “best-fit” model. I am 1,000% percent confident, that if the IPCC was forced to run “Stepwise” on a model that includes all their data sets and using the Satellite Temperature Data there is 0.00% chance that CO2 would be one of the most significant variables.

This is a very very very easy to expose the fraud that CAGW truly is, and it would be done objectively and removed from political and personal bias. President Trump should demand that “Stepwise” be run on all Tax-Payer Funded climate models, and the results of the “Stepwise” model should be compared to the results of the existing model. If the R-Square, or explanatory power, of the “Stepwise” model, is greater than the existing climate model, then you have the case for possible scientific fraud. It will at least force the slimate clientists to acknowledge that there are factors far far far more important to the climate than CO2.  Slimate clientists have chosen the computer as their weapon in this war, so President Trump should fight back using the computer. Like the Frankenstein Monster, the creation can be used to turn on its creators. Computers won’t lie, slimate climatists will and do, and “Stepwise” can prove it. The very computer models the IPCC created to manufacture the CAGW Myth can be used to destroy it.

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What “Settled Science” Really Looks Like…And What It Doesn’t

In the above video, ad Apollo  Astronaut demonstrates what “settled science” really looks like. While science is never truly settled, the Laws of Gravity are about as close as possible to being settled. No matter where you are, on Earth or on the Moon, if you are in a vacuum, and drop objects with mass, those objects will fall at the same rate. If you are on Earth, at sea level, in a vacuum, if you drop anything with mass, it will fall at 9.8 m/sec^2. You can run that experiment as many times as you want, and it will always fall at 9.8m/sec^2…no exceptions. Experimentation and reproducibility are requirements to “settle” a real science.

Now compare the above description of a “settled” science, and look at slimate clience. Slimate clience doesn’t rely on experimentation, they rely on computer models and a non-falsifiable hypothesis (CO2 can cause both warming and cooling). For slimate clience to be settled, the results of its computer models would be similar to testing gravity. The results would be similar to testing gravity; 9.8, 9.8, 9.8, 9.8, 9.8. Variability is almost non-existent and specified 9.8 m/sec^2 is extremely accurate.

Now compare that to what a slimate clientist calls “settled.” First, there are no experiments, only computer models. Second, there are extreme differences between the computer models. If the climate was truly understood, all models would give identical results, which they don’t. The variability of the models proves there are unsettled differences even within the echo chamber of the IPCC. Third, 100% of the IPCC Climate Models overestimate the actual global temperatures. In real science, what that proves is a bias, not a causative relationship. Results so biased would be used to reject CO2 as the cause, not validate it. Facts are, if something is understood scientifically, it can be modeled, modeled with extreme precision and accuracy. Those are the minimum requirements to settle a science. Slimate clience possesses none of the characteristics of a “settled” science…none.b40bb-haroldhaydenipcc

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By Far the Easiest the Most Cost Effective Way to Solve Global Warming

Tony

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Settled Science? Not So Fast. New Study Voids IPCC Worst Case Scenareo

henrypaynecartoon-sunshinestatenews_156Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study

Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

Read More: Source

And the Bad News for the Climate Alarmists just keeps rolling in:

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals that indicated modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

Less than 3 weeks into the new publication year, the explosion of non-alarming depictions of modern climate change continues.

Read More: Source

Since when can a “settled” science “revise” its calculation. Also, for a “settled” science, the IPCC Models appear to have an extreme amount of variability and inaccuracy. Just what does it take to “settle” a science if replicability, accuracy and the ability to predict outcomes isn’t necessary? In reality, Slimate Clience isn’t a “settled” science, it is an unsettling baseless and indefensible highly biased opinion.

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Progressives are Out Of Touch on a Biblical Scale; NAACP Should Demand Re-Direction of Climate Change Funding to Inner-Cities

MLK

If you go into a black community and poll the residents, I feel confident that none, not a single resident, would rank preventing climate change as one of their top 10 priorities. The social and economic statics of the black community are horrifying, and yet on MLK day 2018, the NAACP claims that “MLK’s Vision Can’t Be Achieved Without Fighting Global Warming.” This, out of all examples, highlights the complete and absolute corrupting force that Climate Change has become. No example I have found demonstrates the absurdity of Climate Change Policy more than the NAACP betraying those whom they claim to represent, and putting the needs of the Democratic Party above them.

“We see climate change as a civil rights issue,” Jacqueline Patterson, head of the NAACP’s environmental and climate justice program, said in an online radio spot for the Yale Center for Environmental Connection.

The black community above all others demonstrates the fact that America has some real problems to deal with, and Quixotic efforts like Climate Change do nothing but rob them of precious resources. The #1 cause of death of a Young Black Man is another Young Black Man. The Black Community has an illegitimacy rate greater than 70%, and the poverty rate to go with it. The excessively high drop-out rate robs countless blacks of reaching the American Dream. Democratic-run Inner-city health-care and schools are embarrassing. Prisons are overpopulated with Blacks, and 1 out of 4 black men have criminal records.

Why then, when faced with these horrendous statistics, does the NAACP demonstrate a level of disconnect that rivals Nancy Antoinette Pelosi? It all goes back to the early 1960s and LBJ. After Abraham Lincoln, founder of the Republican Party freed the slaves, blacks had overwhelmingly supported the Republican Party. As late as the Eisenhower administration, the President who passed the Civil Rights Act of 1957 over the opposition of JFK, blacks overwhelmingly supported the Republican Party. MLK is believed to have been a Republican. The KKK, a Democratic Party construct, not only terrorized Blacks and Jews, they terrorized Republicans. One-quarter of those murdered by the KKK were WHITE REPUBLICANS, including a sitting US Congressman.

The Civil Rights Act of 1957, Pub.L. 85–315, 71 Stat. 634, enacted September 9, 1957, primarily a voting rights bill, was the first federal civil rights legislation passed by the United States Congress since the Civil Rights Act of 1875.

It wasn’t until LBJ made a political calculation, and implemented dependency generating policies, that the black community turned its back on the Republican Party. LBJ and the Democrats didn’t have the black community’s best interests in mind when they jumped on the Civil Rights Bandwagon, they were fighting for self-preservation. LBJ saw the writing on the wall, so when he implemented certain policies directed towards the black community, they weren’t directed at helping the black community, they were directed at creating a dependency upon the US Government.

LBJ and the Democrats, using the Policy Paper titled “The Negro Family; A Case For National Action,” were able to pass through welfare programs that destroyed the Black Family, drove illegitimacy higher, and made a huge percentage of the Black Community wards of the state, dependent upon welfare and other Federal Government “programs.” LBJ and the Democrats don’t share MLK’s vision of a color-blind society where people are judged by the “content of their character, not the color of their skin,”  the Democrats rely on the exploitation of the fears, vulnerabilities, and insecurities of minorities and women through “Identify Politics.” There is no “We the People of the United States” in the Democratic Party, there is only us and them. The Democrats Party, and their defining Identify Politics, isn’t intended to Unite Americans, it is intended to divide them into voting blocks.

Today, Democrats are fighting for policies that are flooding our inner-cities with low skill illegal immigrant workers, straining the funding of our social services, and taking jobs from many blacks. Silicon Valley, the Patron of the Democratic Party, is doing everything possible to automate the jobs many Blacks depend upon. Planned Parenthood is deliberately located near ghettos to do its founder’s racist biddings. Democrats are so shameless and willing to exploit the miseries of the Black Community that Democrat VA Gov. Terry McCaullife pardoned 60,000 felons prior to the recent election, hoping to tip the vote in Hillary’s favor. In my opinion, any party that lusts for power that much, and is willing to abuse power to that extent shouldn’t be trusted by anyone of any color. What incentive do Despicable Democrats have to reduce the crime in the Black Community if they can exploit their criminal records for votes? Black Community suffering benefits the Democratic Party, and they aren’t ashamed to exploit that suffering.

In a 1957 interview with Mike Wallace, Sanger revealed: “I think the greatest sin in the world is bringing children into the world — that have disease from their parents, that have no chance in the world to be a human being practically. Delinquents, prisoners, all sorts of things just marked when they’re born. That to me is the greatest sin — that people can — can commit.”

This line of thinking from its founder has left lasting marks on the legacy of Planned Parenthood. For example, 79 percent of Planned Parenthood’s surgical abortion facilities are located within walking distance of black or Hispanic communities.

Why then, with all the real problems facing the Black Community, would the NAACP puts its support behind the Democratic Party and their Ultra-Elitist Climate Change agenda? The answer is simple, the NAACP doesn’t represent the majority of black people, they represent the Democratic Party. Just as NOW doesn’t represent the interest of the majority of women, many of whom think baking cookies and being great stay-at-home non-career-oriented moms is the noblest of professions, the NAACP is nothing more than a Democratic Party Front-Organization. They give the illusion of representing the interests of whom they fraudulently claim to represent.

Both Blacks and White Republicans were murdered by the KKK, yet both groups dealt with it differently. White Republicans don’t allow Democrats to use their violent and appalling history as a weapon to scare them into voting for Democrats. Blacks would be wise to do the same. Blacks should never trust or support a political party that uses their own racist and violent history to exploit their fears, insecurities, and vulnerabilities as minorities. Blacks should support the Party that shares MLK’s vision of a unified color-blind society, where all people are free to pursue the American Dream, regardless of color, not the Party that promotes divisive identity politics that creates dependency and prevents people from reaching their true potentials. Slavery ended over 150 years ago, the Civil Rights Bills passed over 50 years ago, so why do “Progressive” Democrats insist on living in the past and picking the scabs off old wounds? The answer is because they have no vision of the future and no answers to today’s problems. Socialism simply isn’t progressive, and it will never work for any nation with generous welfare programs and open borders. And the Democrats know that.

If the NAACP truly represented the interests of the black community they would promote diversifying their vote. As long as 95%+ of blacks vote Democrat, their vote will always be taken for granted. The NAACP would be demanding the Democrats direct funding AWAY from Quixotic climate change projects, and towards better schools, job training, daycare, rehabilitation services, inner-city infrastructure, and social programs that teach self-reliance that would help break the black community’s dependence upon government programs. Only then, when the Black Community has broken its addiction to the Democratic Party and their self-defeating, dependency-creating programs, will the Black Community truly be able to share in the American Dream. Until then, with Deplorable Friends like the Godless Democratic Party and NAACP, the Black Community and America doesn’t need enemies.

Lastly, when the Democratic Party made the symbolic gesture of running the first black man for President of the United States, they didn’t choose an impoverished black man from the inner-cities, they chose a black man that had been raised by his white mother in Kansas. He didn’t send his children to failed Democrat run Inner-City Schools, he sent his children to elite private schools. They deliberately chose a black man far removed from the lives most black people live. Maybe that is why the Black Community didn’t advance during the 8 years of the Obama presidency unless you consider the rise of the divisive, misguided and ineffective “Black Lives Matter” and a “Beer Summit” an “advance.” Democrat, the party of Style over Substance.

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If They Aren’t S#!*Holes, Why Are People So Eager To Leave?

a002640_slate

Are the slimate clientists at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio “racist” for publishing photos of the man-made hell hole called Haiti? A picture paints a 1,000 words, and NASA is saying a lot with their pictures. Just what was the intent of NASA for publishing this photo and highlighting the massive ecological destruction clearly attributed to one Nation? The message should be clear. Haiti should copy the policies of the Dominican Republic. Facts are, allowing people to simply destroy their own countries, and then move to the US isn’t going to help anyone. The best solution is to export freedom and democracy so that these countries can clean up their own messes, and won’t be forced to flee their homeland. It isn’t humane to allow people to live under the oppression of tyrants and corrupt governments.

Hatai.png

Haiti: The Most Beautiful Garbage Dump in the World Another Link And Another

President Trump has the right idea of a merit-based immigration system, similar to the liberal Nations like Canada, Denmark, Germany, Australia, and others have. Why import other Nation’s problems, and why import people that strive to change America and make it like the countries they fled? President Trump should encourage political reform in these nations over chain migration to the US. Fix the problem that is causing these people to flee in the first place. Use the mechanism being promoted for Iran, that of encouraging revolution, as a solution. Empower the people to rise up and demand better, and shed the chains of tyranny.

One African source reached by Breitbart News on Friday said that Trump had only said what many Africans say behind closed doors — at least about the continent’s most troubled nations.

“The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe are ‘s#!$holes’ — run by a$$holes,” the source said.

In 2000, the satirical website The Onion — which then still published a print newspaper — satirized the alternative perspectives of a liberal college student on the one hand, and a resident of Nigeria on the other, in a “point-counterpoint” titled, “Nigeria May Be A Developing Nation, But It Is Rich In Culture vs. Get Me Out Of This Godforsaken Hellhole.”

The unfortunate reality is that liberals have to portray every issue as a divisive racial, sex, or sexual orientation issue. When you don’t have solutions to any real issues, you make them up, or you attempt to divide and conquer. The common denominator of all hell holes is a population that has demonstrated an inability to self-govern. The governments of these hellholes don’t represent the people, they exploit the people. President Trump supports a colorblind immigration policy, he wants people judged by their character, not the color of their skin. Plenty of non-white people from the Orient are sure to pass a merit-based immigration system. Basically, if you want to contribute to the American system, and you have the ability to contribute, not drain the system, you are welcome under a merit-based system, regardless of color.

Source: Some Africans Endorse President Donald Trump’s ‘S#!$thole’ Remarks

Another Article: Nigeria May Be A Developing Nation, But It Is Rich In Culture vs. Get Me Out Of This Godforsaken Hellhole (Note: Satire, but it makes the point)

Actions speak louder than words: Aaron Klein: Barack Obama Treated Israel ‘Like a S#!*hole’ for Eight Years

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How Do You Know A Climate Alarmist Is Lying? Their Lips Are Moving

Let me begin by thanking the bipartisan group of U.S. governors who convened this meeting.

Few challenges facing America – and the world – are more urgent than combating climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear. Sea levels are rising. Coastlines are shrinking. We’ve seen record drought, spreading famine, and storms that are growing stronger with each passing hurricane season.

Climate change and our dependence on foreign oil, if left unaddressed, will continue to weaken our economy and threaten our national security.

Claim #1: Few Challenges Facing America – And The World – Are More Urgent Than Combating Climate Change.

Response to Claim #1: Climate Change has always occurred, and it has nothing to do with CO2. CO2 once reached 7000 ppm and there was no catastrophic warming. The earth fell into an ice age when CO2 was 4000 ppm, or 10x the level it is today. Never in the history of the earth has the climate not been changing. A changing climate is the norm, not the exception, and man’s ability to stop climate change is about the same as man’s ability to stop the seasons, and night and day. Fighting climate change is the Quixotic venture of all Quixotic ventures. Terrorism, unfunded pension liabilities, job displacement, poor inner city schools, poor inner-city healthcare, run away college inflation, China blackmailing the US with their US Debt holdings, cleaner water, protecting natural treasures, rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, job training, energy independence, promoting freedom worldwide, etc etc etc. If fact, fighting climate change ranks near dead last on the public’s priorities.

Claim #2: The “Science” Is Beyond Dispute.

Response to Claim #2: Real Science is never settled, and real science relies on experimentation and application of the scientific method. Climate “Science” claims to be “settled” and relies on unprovable hypothesis where CO2 can cause both warming and cooling, and uses computer models in place of the scientific method. What evidence the slimate clientists do present to support their hypothesis, fails miserably. None of the IPCC Computer Models accurately model CO2 and Temperature, and 100% of them overestimate warming. That is evidence of a systemic bias, not evidence of sound science. Real scientists would use the results on the computer models to change their conclusion that CO2 drives climate change.

Claim #3: The Facts Are Clear

Response to Claim #3: If the facts were clear, the computer models would be producing results that support the conclusion that CO2 is driving climate change. They don’t. To complicate this matter, the data supporting these “facts” are highly “adjusted.” Also, how can the facts ever be clear when CO2 can cause both warming and cooling? Who decides which is better, and what is the desired outcome? Do the climate alarmists claim they can manufacture a stable global climate? That is absurd.

Claim #4: Sea Levels Are Rising

Response to Claim #4: When haven’t sea levels been increasing? Sea levels have been increasing since the end of the last ice age, and the rate of change is near the lowest in the past 15,000 years. A rising sea level is evidence that we are no longer in an ice age, not that we have produced too much CO2. If the global temperatures were, in fact, increasing at an increasing rate, glaciers would be melting at an increasing rate, and sea levels would be increasing at an increasing rate. They aren’t. There is no evidence that sea level rate of change has been accelerating. Even if sea levels are accelerating, and temperatures are accelerating, that still doesn’t mean CO2 is the cause. There are plenty of periods in world history when temperatures and sea levels have accelerated without CO2 being the driver.

Claim #5: Coastlines Are Shrinking

Response to Claim #5: See Response to Claim #4. Coastlines are shrinking, and they are also growing. Earthquakes, tectonic plate shifting, volcanic activity, construction, etc etc etc all work to shape the coastlines and they have nothing to do with CO2. The oceans are warming and expanding. That will increase the sea level and shrink the coastline, but the wavelengths CO2 absorbs won’t penetrate or warm the oceans. Visible radiation warms the oceans.

Claim #6: We’ve Seen Record Drought

Response to Claim #6: Drought isn’t even an expected outcome of a warming globe. Warmer air holds more water vapor. Droughts haven’t been getting worse, in fact, according to NASA, the earth has undergone substantial greening. CO2, after all, is plant food, and plants are huge producers of air humidity.

Claim #7: We’ve Seen…Spreading Famine

Response to Claim #7: This is the most absurd claim. CO2 is plant food, and higher CO2 levels result in higher crop yields. That BTW is about as settled as science can be and easily demonstrated in a lab. Higher CO2 is the answer to ending famine, not the cause. If there is famine today it is due to a food distribution problem, not a food production issue. Most likely, the cause of famine is a war, tyrannical government or other man-made causes blocking the delivery of food to needy people.

Claim #8: We’ve Seen…Storms That Are Growing Stronger

Response to Claim #8: The evidence simply doesn’t support this claim. Tornados have not been becoming more frequent or strong, and they certainly aren’t tied to the rate of change of CO2. Once again, warming isn’t evidence that man is causing the warming. Unless you can explain how CO2 can warm the oceans, there must be some other factor causing the warming. The most likely cause is simply fewer clouds over the oceans allowing more visible radiation to reach the oceans.

Claim #9: We’ve Seen..Storms That Are Growing Stronger With Each Passing Hurricane Season

Response to Claim #9: Hurricanes are actually growing less frequent and less severe, and once again, any trend isn’t tied to CO2. Almost all claims that current weather events are getting worse crumble under analysis. If you want to learn about extreme weather read the Bible, or study the history of the collapse of the Bronze Age.

Claim #10: Climate Change And Our Dependence On Foreign Oil, If Left Unaddressed, Will Continue To Weaken Our Economy And Threaten Our National Security.

Response to Claim #10: That is true, but the solution isn’t building wind and solar farms.  Blocking the Keystone Pipeline, fracking and drilling simply prolonged and worsened our position and strengthened the terrorists. President Trump’s position of promoting US Energy DOMINANCE by drilling, deregulating, opening Federal Lands and promoting revolution in Iran is an infinitely better approach. An approach that will actually deliver results.

Other nonsensical claims made by the climate alarmists also crumble under analysis.

  1. Polar Bears aren’t being harmed by global warming, in fact, their populations are growing. BTW, polar bears thrive in warm zoos and have survived countless periods of growing and shrinking Arctic ice. The Arctic was ice-free in 1959, before the surge in CO2.
  2. Here is a list of many other nonsensical claims made by the climate alarmists, and the supporting research was largely paid for by tax dollars.
  3. Universities are centers of higher learning.
  4. Climate Activists Suffering From Factophobia… Host Of Studies Show No Drought/Forest Fire Trend
  5. Alarmists Were Scrambling To Show Cold Winters Fit The Global Warming Model, Then A New Study Came Out

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